Large windy weekend ahead
Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 18th June)
Best Days: Sat/Sun: large south swell but very windy at times. Mon: easing S/SE swell with improving conditions. Tues/Wed/Thurs/Fri: fun small south swell with generally favourable winds.
Recap: Tiny clean conditions Thursday ahead of a new south swell that’s slowly building in side across the region right now. Sets to 4ft had been observed at the Bondi surfcam at the time this report was prepared (3:30pm) but it’s continuing to build and should be considerably larger by sundown. Winds are gusty from the W/SW tending SW.
This weekend (July 19-20)
Big and windy: that’s what this weekend has in store for us. The low pressure system currently developing off the coast is quite impressive, but in all honesty it’s only generating just a bog-standard large south swell event, perhaps a little bigger than what we usually see from these kinds of weather patterns.
For the most part, strong southerly winds will write off most locations so you’re going to have to tuck into a sheltered southern corner for the best waves. The current building swell is expected to reach a peak overnight or early Saturday morning and will trend slowly downwards throughout the day.
South facing beaches should see early 8ft to possibly 10ft sets but most open beaches will be smaller near 4-6ft, with 2-3ft surf expected inside sheltered southern corners. Expect smaller waves into the afternoon. Strong SW tending S’ly winds (early on) are expected at most locations however we may see early W/SW at a few locations (i.e. Northern Beaches) for a few hours around dawn.
Sunday actually looks a little more promising than Saturday despite the likelihood of similar winds - albeit with an abating trend throughout the day. The reason I'm more interested in Sunday is due to the arrival of a second strong pulse of S/SE groundswell, generated by a secondary low pressure system that's expected to develop east of Tasmania overnight, before it tracks through the south-western Tasman Sea on Saturday, working on the active sea state generated by the current front/low combo.
This will help in kicking up a similar size swell - as per Saturday morning - but with a marginally longer swell period, and a touch more S/SE in the swell direction, ahead of a steady easing trend throughout the day. Again, only protected locations will be worthwhile but there should be some impressive lines marching up the coast. Keep an eye out for an early period of W/SW winds in some regions early morning too (again, mainly on the Northern Beaches).
Next week (July 21-25)
No major weather systems are expected to develop within our swell window(s) next week, so the overall trend is downwards from Monday onwards. Fortunately, the Long Wave Trough will have moved slightly further away from the Australian mainland by the start of the week (east of New Zealand) and with a high pressure ridge moving in from the west, we should see lighter W/SW tending SW winds in most regions.
South facing beaches will continue to pick up the biggest waves - maybe some 4-5ft sets early Monday - but it’ll drop steadily during the day, down to 2-3ft. Smaller surf is expected through Tuesday with similarly favourable winds.
A series of fronts skirting the far Southern Ocean below Tasmania/New Zealand early next week are expected to generate some small long period south swell that’ll keep us moving at exposed south facing beaches for the second half of next week. No major size is expected form these sources but with generally light winds on offer there should be some fun waves around.
Longer term (July 26 onwards)
Current model guidance suggests another front will cross the SE corner of the country later next week or early in the weekend, leading to another round of short range south swell sometime Saturday or Sunday. Otherwise there are no other sources of long range swell on the cards.
Comments
Bigger.. slowly!
Once again Bondi looks as appealing as a shit sandwich made with stale bread.
Couple of good waves coming through in the 'Nulla. Still undersized though.
Island time.
Just saw Stanwell Park from the train and it looked at least 5'. It may have been bigger, certainly wasn't surfable despite the surface being relatively clean. Some good lines starting to march up the coast so it's looking good for secluded places tomorrow.
And I've got a new 6'6" to test out in those places...
Solid set on dark across Bondi..
I staked out my favourite right hander near ulladulla for most of the arvo and while the swell did increase from knee high at lunchtime to waist high by 3:30 it was still only a shorebreak onto the rocks and not really rideable. Seeing something brown heading south about 150 metres out didn't make a paddle any more appealing either, though it may well have been a seal??
I'll be sleeping in tomorrow morning.......
I lasted about 45 minutes from 4.00. The wind chill was extreme by local standards. A few fun waves but probably not worth the cold in retrospect. It was up to about 4ft by the time I came in but still a bit weak.
Jeez, swell must of kicked strong after dark!
Ha you beat me to it by about 30 sec Craig. Was just admiring the vertical action on the syd buoy.
Haha, what we like to call a J-curve!
wow, what a massive hoax that was.
A mate of mine rang to say that it seems everybody from the Far Nth Coast and the whole of Qld made the trip to Lennox today in anticipation of the much forecast swell. He reckons there would have been close to 150 out,the current was savage and got to about 6ft+ by lunchtime but they were jumping off like lemmings, 20 at a time and not a carpark spot left south of the border!
Fucken hell Ben, you've got to do something about the accuracy and quality of your surf reports. They've gone from erratic to downright dangerous.
This morning's dawn report : "south facing beaches having the better size and smaller elsewhere, with the waves due to build more through the day. Protected corners and back beaches are the go with the fresh SW winds."
Unbelievable. It was roaring six feet plus and you recommend backbeaches.......wtf.
Well three surfers did go to a backbeach. Two were rescued, one remains missing. You couldn't have got a more dangerous day at Tallows than today. The rip was flowing out like a river and heading around the Cape.
Lets hope that bloke shows up.
Freeride, if you're attempting to allocate even a single particle of blame towards Swellnet then you're drunk . No one forces anyone to paddle out. As someone that fancies themselves a purist , you of all people knows that.
Of course mate, but why the fuck on a day like this would you recommend backbeaches?
it's ignorant at the very kindest interpretation.
beggars belief really.
Drunk haha !
Sounds like it was a young Irish fella who's still missing......
Ben, any reason why backbeaches were recommended yesterday morning?
I think a response would be appropriate.
Geez there's just no pleasing some people. Ben has absolutely nailed the forecast for the entire weekend and if kooks paddle out in conditions they aren't experienced enough for then that's their own fault 100%. Of course he could have just taken the surf lifesaving approach and recommended that everyone stay well away from the surf and put up a "beach closed" sign if that's more to your liking.
Give Ben a break not his fault
Ben has nailed the forecast but the report was woefully innacurate. Ben's a grown man he can answer for himself.
Ben do you know why back beaches were recommended yesterday?
What's the drama all the time with the reports Shearer? If it's not the rating its now the back beaches being recommended.
Surely you can't be trying to blame a report for people getting themselves into trouble by going in surf over their ability levels? It's very sad that someone has gone missing but surely they could have looked at the conditions and made a judgement call of their own on weather they were up to it or not like most others do and not take a reports recommendation as the gospil.
Has it got something to do with you no longer doing the reports for swellnet ? As that how it is beginning to look.
Yeah , i'm sure those boys logged onto Swellnet and saw the word backbeach and said ''Yeah lets hit tallows'' what a fucken stupid assumption.
Fact is how many overseas tourists and beginners get themselves into trouble all over the surfing world because of lack of experience and education ,end of story. Backbeach or front beach its always gonna happen that people will end up out of their depth and unfortunately sometimes pay the ultimate price.But to relate an to a surf report? You've got to fucken joking'mate!!
Briefly caught the story on tv news ......was one of them a surf instructor ?
Not a lucky clover, poor bugger.
OK.. let me begin by saying that in the twelve years I've been running Swellnet, there's a consistent theme with surf reporters (and indeed surfers in general) around the country and overseas, and that is: everyone has their own interpretation of what's right and what's wrong, what's good and what's bad, how big a wave is, etc. This personal interpretation also extends to the meaning of different words: it seems that some terms can have multiple meanings, depending on where you are and the kinds of waves you surf.
And this sometimes makes the provision of surf reports and surf forecasts quite challenging, because we're trying to manage the expectations of everyone from beginners to professionals. We have a team of thirty surf reporters providing daily information and it's difficult to scrutinise (in real time) each and every word uploaded to our website 365 days of the year.
Re: Saturday's Ballina dawn report - I have spoken to our reporter, and it seems he had a different interpretation of the term "back beach" to what I would personally use. He says that he (and I quote) "thought 'back beaches' to mean more out of the way, hence more protected from the swell".
You'll note that the sentence you cut n' paste from the Ballina dawn report was: "Protected corners and back beaches are the go with the fresh SW winds." The first two words: "Protected corners". It certainly fits in with his view of what he was reporting at the time - there's no sense in recommending both a protected location and an exposed location, especially on a rapidly rising swell (which was also noted in the report).
There is no literal definition of the term 'back beach' however it seems that there's a couple of variations, depending on your coastline. But for me, a back beach on the east coast usually refers to a beach on the 'back' of a point/headland or other prominent geographical feature, usually relative to a nearby town or community. The common surfing characteristic for East Coast back beaches is that they usually offer some degree of protection from northerly winds.
Anyway, I have asked that the term not be used again in any context other than the one listed just above. I'll also communicate this information on to the rest of our surf reporters for clarification.
good reply ben, but the real issue here is for all of us and i am guilty too. we should all have the guts to talk to people on the beach and say, hey, unless you are experienced, dont go in there today. i fucked up yesterday, i saw jap girl putting on suit and going into water with the coolie express on warp speed, i let her go, swept into green mount, panicked and tried paddling against sweep, luckily a surge got her and she narrowly missed rocks and got swept down coolie. we all have a duty of care i reckon if we know a place and conditions and while not being heavy handed, we should just have a chat to see if they know what they are truly dealing with.
Good to hear you're back Dave
thanks mate, still a little way from being back in the water, but will be defying medical advice and be bodysurfing soon i reckon, whats life if you cant live it and love it eh!
Poor form freeride
Yeah, look sorry for massively over-stepping the mark. It's all been a bit close to home lately.
When I woke a bit late I checked the report first, I usually check the surf first - and when I saw backbeaches I thought WTF. I went and checked a local point, it was strong, strong swell in the 6ft range, maybe bigger.
I thought: backbeaches will be deadly today. This after a week when a rock fisherman was swept in at the above Point, with a bloke risking his life to save him.
I dragged a German chick out of a rip just before she was swept around the rocks to a bad fate and the bloke with two young kids drowned in Sydney.
Then just after eleven I heard the Rescue Chopper buzzing around and I felt a bit sick in the pit of my stomach. I knew someone was in trouble.
Three blokes, English, Irish and American - that sounds like a joke- two in training to be surf instructors which is a massive rort in itself and in need of scrutiny, thought they could take it on.
Tallows was ugly. Big deep gutter with a way outside bank that was just slamming. That bank went all the way around the Cape with a river of ocean running through it. It was exploding on the cliff faces of the Cape. You would not want to end up there.
One bloke somehow scrambled up onto a rock on the Cape. One got washed around the Cape and picked up at Wategoes and the poor Irish bloke was last seen getting smashed to smithereens on the rocks at the foot of the Cape. They wanted rescuers to get down there and look for him but there was just no way anyone could get down into that maelstrom.
By pure chance I was at the Airport today when the missing mans next of kin in Aus flew in from Melbourne. They were devastated as you would be.
I know it's people's individual responsibility but surely we don't have too make it easier for them to get in harms way. It could be you, or your mate risking their life to get these people to safety.
People with no clue read these reports, they have to have some resemblance to reality.
I reckon something like this would have been appropriate yesterday: "Solid 6ft surf at the Points for experienced surfers. If you haven't got the chops to deal with dangerous rock-offs, strong currents and big waves then head to the protected Bays for user-friendly surf in the 2-3ft range."
or something like that. I know Ben does that for his reports.
Anyway, sorry once again for shooting off from the hip. It was an emotional day yesterday and I feel real bad for that kid. He had no business being out there. No-one did and I reacted badly to an innocent mistake by the reporter.
Ben, good stuff for looking into it.
Steve, that feels like a really honest explanation.
http://www.echo.net.au/2014/07/surfer-missing-cape-byron/