Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 14th May)

Best Days: No great days. Get in Thursday morning for the scraps of today’s swell.

Recap: The much discussed SE swell ended up coming through on Tuesday, and delivering slightly bigger waves than expected - which is very impressive given its remote, unusual source and the large travel distance. Although set waves were very inconsistent, there have been reports of 2-3ft waves at many locations from Tuesday afternoon through into this morning (even a few bigger waves in the Hunter). However from my vantage point on the Northern Beaches surf size was a little smaller. Conditions have been nice and clean with generally light winds.

This week (May 13-16 onwards)

The forecast notes will be nice and short for today, because the weather maps are devoid of anything interesting. The current SE swell will fade this afternoon and further into Thursday, leaving very small, inconsistent leftovers at exposed beaches. Tiny conditions are expected on Friday with light N'ly winds. 

This weekend (May 17-18)

I’m not expecting much surf in southern NSW this weekend. The swell window is devoid of any major activity, thanks to a broad high pressure ridge over the eastern states (and the Tasman Sea) which is deflecting Southern Ocean fronts and lows away to the southeast once they track within Tasmanian longitudes. A tiny level of trade swell spread may find its way to exposed beaches but we’ll be lucky to see much more than a foot or so.

The only item to keep a tab on will be at exposed south swell magnets late Sunday. An intense low is due to clip Tasmania on Saturday, and although aligned well and truly outside of our swell window, may send a brief flush of south swell into the South Coast around midday Sunday, reaching the Sydney region very late in the day. On the whole I don’t think we’ll see much, if anything from it but in the absence of any meaningful swell, there’s a chance that exposed south swell magnets may see a few stray lines of energy around a foot or two. 

Long term (May 19 onwards)

One of the main contributors to the current small spell is the long wave trough, which is currently amplifying SW of Western Australia.

Because the East Coast’s south swell window is located on the downstream flank of the LWT, we’re reliant on flukey swell sources (i.e. today’s SE swell) to keep the coast active. A stubborn ridge of high pressure across the Tasman Sea will probably restrict anything noteworthy forming in the Tasman Sea for quite some time. 

Fortunately, it looks like the LWT may slowly shift further east during the weekend and into next week, which should allow for our far southern swell window to become active. 

Straight off the bat, a broad, intense low is modelled to pass well to the south of SA/Vic/Tas on Saturday and Sunday (at around 50S) that’s expected to deliver some small long period southerly swell around Tuesday of next week. With likely favourable conditions on hand, exposed south swell magnets across the region should benefit quite well from this source (early estimates are very inconsistent 3ft sets). 

Beyond that, the middle to latter part of next week - and the following weekend - are also on track for some additional long range southerly groundswell as our far southern swell window becomes active. More on this in Friday’s update.