Southern Tasmanian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday January 24th)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning, Sunday morning, selected spots Monday, Wednesday morning, Thursday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small-mod sized mid-period W/SW swell building later tomorrow, with a stronger W/SW groundswell Sun AM, easing Mon
• N/NW tending S/SE winds tomorrow ahead of late SW change
• Variable W/SW-W/NW winds Sun ahead of gusty S/SE-SE sea breezes
• Strong N/NE winds Mon, tending N/NW through the PM
• Moderate sized W/SW swell building later Tue, peaking Wed with W/NW tending S/SE winds

Recap

The surf has been in the small 1-2ft range the last two days thanks to mid-period swell energy spreading off a low that moved under us Wednesday.

This weekend and next week (Jan 25 - 31)

The weekend should see building levels of W/SW swell energy in both size and period, with a peak due Sunday.

This is thanks to back to back frontal systems moving in and under us, with the second being stronger than the first.

The first has generated a fetch of weakening W’ly gales while moving in from the Heard Island region and may produce a 2ft wave later tomorrow, while a secondary stronger system is currently pushing in on top of the active sea state created by the first.

Fetches of gales should produce more size Sunday to 3ft on the sets across Clifton, easing into the afternoon and then down from 2ft+ on Monday.

Local winds tomorrow look great and N/NW through the morning ahead of the swell, giving into weak sea breezes and then a shallow SW change later afternoon.

Sunday looks a touch dicey but pre-dawn W/SW winds should ease and tend variable through the morning ahead of freshening S/SE-SE sea breezes.

On Monday, strong N/NE winds will favour selected spots before shifting more N/NW mid-late afternoon.

Moving into the middle of the week, and a strengthening low right under us on Tuesday should produce a great fetch of W/SW gales through our western swell window, kicking up a moderate sized W/SW-SW swell for Wednesday to 3ft+ across Clifton. Morning W/NW winds will favour protected spots ahead of sea breezes, smaller Thursday with variable morning winds.

Longer term the outlook is a little quieter so make the most of the coming swells. Have a great weekend!