South Arm Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday October 30th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Brief window of small clean waves at dawn Thursday
• OK small waves possible early Friday
• Fun beachies Saturday with offshore winds and slowly easing surf
• Fun surf expected mid-next week

Recap

Small surf over the last two days, no major size but 1-2ft sets with reasonable conditions under westerly winds. 

This week (Oct 31 - Nov 1)

A gusty S/SW change is due into the South Arm around 7-8am Thursday (give or take) so any chances of surfing will need to happen at dawn, and only for a brief period whilst winds are lighter and more W/NW.

Surf size should hold similar to today with slow sets around 2ft mark across the open beaches. Winds will ease into the afternoon but it probably won’t be worth a paddle until very late.

Friday will see winds veer back to the W/NW before gradually swinging W’ly then W/SW through the morning as another strong front passes to the south of the state. Initially small leftover surf around 1-2ft will rebuild a little through the day but again, conditions will be deteriorating by this time so keep your expectations low. 

This weekend (Nov 2 - 3)

Saturday looks great for the open beaches. Friday’s lingering swell reinforcement will gradually fade through the day but there should still be just enough energy for slow 2ft waves early on (smaller later), and conditions will be clean with light winds tending N/NE and freshening as a high pressure system sets up east of Bass Strait and a front approaches from the west.

Sunday looks terrible with very small leftover surf and pre-dawn gale-force N’ly winds swinging W/NW early-mid morning, but with no appreciable kick in surf until very late in the day (if at all… Monday is a safer bet). 

So, flag Sunday and make sure you aim for a paddle on Saturday.

Next week (Nov 4 onwards)

The models have a nice mid-latitude low winding up south of WA on Friday however it’ll initially develop too far north of the South Arm’s swell window to be of any major benefit (see below).

This system will eventually slide under the state early next week, with a small but windy swell increase due Monday and Tuesday. 

As the low tracks below the state around this time, it’ll develop a better fetch in a more favourable part of our swell window, which should produce some fun small waves on Wednesday around 2ft+. Early indications are that the front will have cleared to the east by this time, allowing winds to swing northerly. 

More on this in Friday's update.