South Arm Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday October 28th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small average waves all week, best early Tues/Wed/Fri with pockets of lighter winds
• Saturday the pick of the forecast period with light winds and small easing swells
• Sunday looks tiny and windy
• More fronts and plenty of waves for the South Arm early next week

Recap

Flat conditions over the weekend, increasing a little on Monday but still too small to bother with.

Better options across the East Coast today!

This week (Oct 29 - Nov 1)

A series of modest fronts skirting the southern states will maintain a fresh westerly airstream for the rest of the week, which suggests some surf potential - however nothing amazing is expected as the energy sources weren’t terribly strong, nor were they well aligned perfectly within our swell window.

As of Monday afternoon, heights are currently trending up at Cape Sorell, so Tuesday morning should see some small waves across the open beaches as this event slowly eases in size. We should see a pocket of lighter winds from the W/NW early, allowing for clean conditions, but don’t expect much more than a slow 1-2ft.

Wednesday morning will see the arrival of a new swell early on - I’m slightly concerned that it may not be in the water at first light, and that it may only start to show properly mid-late morning, by which time the small window of lighter early winds will probably be back to a fresh westerly. So again, keep your expectations in check - size probably will hold around 1-2ft.

The final front in this sequence is due to cross the region on Thursday morning, clearing to the east throughout Friday. Thursday will probably see small bumpy waves all day, with a little more size expected into Friday in the lee of the change, though again, only 1-2ft across most of the South Arm.

This weekend (Nov 2 - 3)

Looking like a weekend of two halves - clean with offshore winds and small easing swells on Saturday, with average conditions on Sunday as winds strengthen and surf size bottoms out.

A small polar front sliding below the continent mid-week isn’t showing up in the wave model output very well, however I think it’ll provide a minor reinforcing swell for Saturday that should maintain peaky, mid-period 2ft sets across the open beaches, and conditions are looking good with NW tending N’ly winds that will freshen into the afternoon and may even swing NE later. Surf size will probably ease into the afternoon so aim for a morning paddle.

Sunday looks tiny with blustery conditions.

Next week (Nov 4 onwards)

A strong frontal sequence is expected early next week which should return a spell of fresh westerlies and building swells to the region that’ll provide plenty of waves for the South Arm. More on this in Wednesday’s update.