Southern Tasmanian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday October 25th)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning, Tuesday morning, Wednesday morning, Thursday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S swell tomorrow with moderate N/NW tending gusty E/NE-NE winds
• Tiny Sun
• Moderate sized mid-period W/SW swell building Mon PM (tiny early), holding Tue with a reinforcing, smaller W/SW swell Wed
• W/NW tending strong W/SW-SW winds mid-late AM Mon
• W/NW tending SW winds Tue
• N/NW tending SW winds Wed

Recap

Yesterday remained clean most of the day with 2ft of swell following Wednesday’s pulse, while this morning we’ve seen conditions deteriorate as a trough moved across us and up the East Coast. The swell is still 2ft but out of a more S’ly direction.

This weekend and next week (Oct 25 - Nov 1)

Tomorrow looks cleaner across Clifton and with fun levels of easing S’ly swell from 1-2ft under a moderate N/NW tending fresh E/NE-NE breeze. Go the morning for the best conditions.

Sunday will be tiny and we then look at small pulses of W/SW swell due into next week as a progression of relatively weak frontal systems move in under the country.

Unfortunately the stronger swell for Wednesday which was linked to a strong low forming in the frontal flow by both leading weather models, has since been backed off. EC still has it a bit stronger than GFS which has really downgraded the potential.

Regardless we’ll see an initial weak low moving in Sunday, with a building mid-period W/SW swell Monday afternoon, increasing from 1ft+ to 2ft+ into the afternoon but with moderate W/NW tending strong W/SW-SW winds.

Tuesday looks better with W/NW offshores in the morning and easing 2ft+ sets.

Wednesday’s swell, generated by distant W/NW gales isn’t expected to really top 1-2ft but conditions will be cleaner with a N/NW offshore, shifting W/SW-SW into the afternoon.

Looking at the end of the week, the models diverge slightly regarding increasing frontal activity south of us. GFS is more positive regarding developments but we'll have another look at this Monday. Have a great weekend!