Southern Tasmanian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday September 27th)

Best Days: Today, Saturday, Sunday morning, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S/SW swell tomorrow, with a reinforcing mid-period SW swell for Sat PM and Sun AM, easing
• N/NW winds tomorrow ahead of weak sea breezes
• Stronger N/NE tending N then weaker N/NW winds Sun
• Tiny Mon with N/NW tending NW winds
• Building W/SW swell Tue with W/NW tending strong W/SW winds
• Peak in W/SW-SW swell Wed AM, easing with NW tending variable SE winds
• Easing swell Thu with N/NW tending S/SE winds
• New S/SW groundswell Fri with strengthening N/NE tending NE winds

Recap

The surf remained relatively clean most of yesterday with a mix of swells that built through the day to the 4ft range under strong westerly breezes.

This morning S/SW swell is on the ease but still a fun 2-3ft with cleaner conditions and more options.

This weekend and next week (Sep 28 - Oct 4)

The weekend looks fun for a paddle, with a strengthening but poorly aligned frontal system expected to produce a fun mid-period swell to 1-2ft tomorrow afternoon (similar size in the morning), easing Sunday from a similar size.

Conditions will be fairly good with a N/NW offshore tomorrow morning ahead of weak sea breezes, stronger N/NE tending N Sunday, then N/NW into the afternoon while easing

Into next week the surf looks to bottom out Monday, but a healthy though not overly strong frontal system is due to move in Tuesday, with a fetch of strong to generally sub-gale-force W/SW winds due to generate a moderate sized W/SW swell for Wednesday.

The swell should start building Tuesday, reaching 2-3ft later with Wednesday coming in at 3ft before easing into the afternoon, smaller Wednesday.

Conditions will deteriorate as the swell builds Tuesday with a W/NW tending strong W/SW breeze, decent Wednesday with a W/NW tending variable SE breeze.

Thursday looks fun as the swell eases with a N/NW offshore ahead of sea breezes.

Longer term a significant but south-east tracking polar low looks to generate a new pulse of S/SW groundswell Friday with N/NE winds but the models diverge a little on the intensity of this tricky system. We’ll have a closer look at this Monday. Have a great weekend!