South Arm Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday July 17th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Solid surf and gusty SW winds Thurs with small waves across the regional points
• Easing, cleaner surf at the beachies on Friday as winds tend N'ly and freshen
• Tiny weekend of windy waves
• Small pulse Mon, but not much
• Tiny surf for most of next week

Recap

Onshore winds have accompanied a slowly easing S’ly swell from 3ft to 2-3ft. 

This week (Jul 18 - 19)

The models have strengthened the onshore airstream into Thursday, associated with an intensifying low off the East Coast. We also still have an unusual S/SE groundswell inbound for Thursday, generated by an earlier incarnation of this system when it was at more polar latitudes. 

Fortunately this pattern has resulted in a subsequent upgrade in size (thanks to the local fetch generating a secondary short period swell) and with winds likely to be more SW in direction, we should see some small clean peelers along the regional points. Open beaches will however be a write-off.

This swell will ease quickly into Friday and winds will swing to the north and rapidly strength as a front approaches from the west. As such, we’re looking at fun beachies in the 3ft range throughout the morning, easing to 1-2ft during the day.

This weekend (Jul 20 - 21)

The weekend outlook remains tiny, all thanks to an active storm track that’s riding very high into the Bight, which is north of our swell window. 

Gusty W’ly winds Saturday will swing N/NW on Sunday but at this stage we’re really not expecting much size throughout the South Arm. 

Next week (Jul 22 onwards)

A peak in this swell cycle is expected on Monday, however the dominant W’ly swell direction (thanks to the unfavourable fetch alignment within our swell window, see below) will severely cap wave heights in Storm Bay to maybe an inconsistent 2ft, perhaps rare 2-3ft sets at exposed South Arm breaks if we’re lucky. Winds look like they’ll swing from the west back to the NW so let’s hope there’s a window of opportunity throughout the day.

Otherwise, the rest of the week looks unimpressive thanks to the storm track’s poor alignment within our swell window, which will probably maintain small surf for most of the week, along with gusty NW quadrant winds.

Long term has a whole stack of swell on the way - more favourable for South Arm, too - as the storm track resumes normal winter programming. So, there’s something to look forward too.

See you Friday.