South Arm Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday July 15th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Poor surf for the next few days
• Interesting S/SE swell Thurs with improving condtions
• Small clean surf Friday with offshore winds
• Tiny this weekend and most of next week
• Next round of swell due around the following weekend

Recap

A new groundswell built in size to 2ft+ on Saturday with generally favourable conditions under morning offshore winds and light afternoon sea breezes. Size eased into Sunday, with freshening onshore winds that have persisted today and built solid local windswells across the region into the 3-5ft range at exposed beaches. 

This week (Jul 16 - 19)

The low responsible for our current local swell is moving outside of our swell window, and so surf size will ease into Tuesday. A second low in the central/southern Tasman Sea loosk to be positioned a little too far north to benefit our region (swells generated by it will be E/SE) however this will be worth considering for east facing coasts (check the associated notes via St Helens for Steve's outlook).

As such we're looking at easing size into Tuesday from 3ft that will probably level out around 2ft into Wednesday thanks to a broad but ultimately only moderate S/SE fetch directly below the state, stretching all the way to Antarctica. Conditions will remain average both days with moderate but ultimately still onshore southerly winds.

Another low looks set to develop inside this troughy region on Wednesday (see below), before projecting N/NW up into our swell window - a very interesting and uncommon pattern that I haven't seen for a while.

This looks like it'll generate an interesting S/SE swell for Storm Bay on Thursday, that should deliver a more uniform size range across many locations for Thursday, up around 3-4ft at exposed spots. Winds are set to swing back around to the W/SW as the low develops further just off the SE tip of the state, which probably won't benefit the beachies but should offer clean conditions along the outer regional points which may have a few fun (though small) waves.  

Easing size is then expected on Friday from 2ft+ to 1-2ft as pre-frontal northerly winds freshen across the region. 

For my money, Thursday's looking like it'll have some potential, and Friday will also be worth a look if you can get yourself to a swell magnet.

This weekend (Jul 20 - 21)

A gale force W'ly change on Friday evening will have little surf accompanying it, most of the associated swell will be very west in direction which will sail straight on past Storm Bay. 

Winds look to be from the NW both days, becoming strong to gale force on Sunday, but surf prospects will remain very small. 

As such, keep your expectations very low this weekend.

Next week (Jul 22 onwards)

The long term looks isn't great for the South Arm, thanks to a northerly storm track through the Bight which will be aimed up into SA and Victoria, but not southern Tasmania. This suggests another period of small windy conditions however the long wave trough is expected to move closer to the region during the week, which points towards much better (though very windy) waves later in the week and next weekend. 

See you Wednesday!