Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday July 10th)

Best Days: Saturday morning, early Sunday, Monday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized W/SW groundswell Sat with W/NW tending fresh SW winds
• Easing swell Sun with SW winds, likely light W early
• Large, stormy S-S/SE swell Mon with strong to near gale-force S/SW tending SW winds
• Easing swell Tue with strong S/SW winds, smaller Wed with gusty SW winds

Recap

Monday’s swell eased back through yesterday from 2ft in the morning to a slower 1-1.5ft later but with clean conditions.

This morning we saw poor conditions with gusty onshore winds and 1-2ft of S windswell but the swell faded as winds eased and swung back offshore with tiny, glassy leftovers seen this afternoon. Quite a turn around.

This week and next (Jul 11 - 19)

Now that the surf is tiny, we’ve got no new swell due into the end of the week.

The weekend will see a moderate sized pulse of W/SW groundswell filling in, but winds now look dicey.

The source of the groundswell is a strong Southern Ocean frontal progression that’s fired up to the east of the Heard Island region, with a fetch of W/SW gales pushing east through our western swell window (left).

The swell looks to come in at 3ft across Clifton Saturday but the remnants of the progression will move through the morning, with a W/NW breeze due to shift SW later morning, holding Sunday. We could see lighter W winds Sunday morning with the easing swell but we’ll have to confirm this on Friday.

The remnants are then expected to coalesce with a deepening trough sliding down the East Coast, resulting in the formation of a deep low pressure system just east of us on Sunday evening, retro-grading back west, bringing strong to near gale-force S/SW winds and a stormy mix of localised swell and mid-period energy.

Large 6ft surf is due out of the S/SE Monday afternoon with winds tending more SW, easing Tuesday with strong S/SW winds persisting.

The S’ly energy looks to be gone by Wednesday but with strong SW winds, back offshore Thursday but tiny.

This is quite a dynamic setup so check back here Friday for a final update.