Southern Tasmanian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday May 20th)

Best Days: Every day this period

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized S/SW groundswell tomorrow with W-W/NW winds, tending NW later
• Easing swell Wed with NW tending N/NW winds, smaller Thu with N/NW winds ahead of a strong S/SW change around midday
• Moderate sized mid-period SW swell Fri with light S-SW-SW winds
• Reinforcing SW swell Sat/Sun with N/NW tending variable winds, easing Mon with N/NE winds

Recap

Friday afternoon’s strong pulse of swell eased back through Saturday with much cleaner conditions, with some solid sets in the mix, lumpier and 2ft or so yesterday.

Today was a little smaller again with clean conditions but smaller 1-2ft surf.

This week and weekend (May 21 - 26)

Today’s low point in swell will be temporary, with a strong pulse of S/SW groundswell due into tomorrow, generated by a strong polar low the last couple of days.

A thin fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds were generated south of us, with a kick to 3-4ft due through tomorrow with a W-W/NW breeze that looks to ease and tend more NW later afternoon.

The swell will ease back from 2-3ft on Wednesday with NW tending N/NW winds, holding out of the N/NW into Thursday morning before a trough brings a S/SW change later morning.

This change will be associated with the next pulse of SW swell, that being a good mid-period number due into Friday.

The source is a healthy polar low moving in under the country during the week, generating a fetch of strong to near gale-force W/SW winds.

A good 3-4ft of swell is due across Clifton again but with possible lingering S/SW-SW winds following Thursday's change. They only look light to moderate and workable but we’ll review this Wednesday.

The weekend should continue to provide plenty of energy with trailing fetches of W’ly winds on the polar shelf due to maintain 2-3ft surf Saturday and Sunday with morning offshores and afternoon variable winds, all day N on Monday.

Longer term the outlook is slower with small to tiny west swells due next week under N/NE winds. More on this and Friday’s winds Wednesday.