South Arm Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday April 22nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small and clean Tues
• Strong surf building Wed but very windy
• Large surf building Thurs (peaking late) with strong SW winds
• Easing winds and strong, easing swells Fri
• Small clean waves all weekend

Recap

Fun clean waves persisted over the weekend in the 2-3ft range, easing into Sunday afternoon with minor 1-2ft leftovers on offer this morning. Conditions were generally clean for the whole period with light winds. 

(Please note: FC Notes will be variable in delivery this week as Craig is on paternity leave)

This week (April 23 - 26)

A strong winteresque frontal progression will deliver plenty of waves throughout the state this week.

Initially, Tuesday will start out small with minor leftovers from today, but mid-afternoon will see the arrival of the first new groundswell, and the open beaches may pick up some fun 2ft+ sets for the late session. 

The first cold front will then cross the region around 10pm Tuesday night (give or take) with a vigorous SW change, before we enter two to three days of strong and gusty, occasionally gale force W’ly quadrant winds.

The good news is that wave heights will build considerably around this time, sourced from a series of powerful polar fronts traversing the ice shelf. The first swell is already enroute; Wednesday will see size build into the 3-4ft range however there won’t be enough size for sheltered spots  at first - so options will be somewhat limited.

Another strong polar low developing south of WA and SA on Tuesday (see below) then looks to deliver the best swell in this sequence, mainly due to its more eastern position (and north-east track) which will occur inside the state’s SW thru’ S/SW swell window. This should allow for a decent amount of size at exposed beaches to fill in throughout Thursday - around 4-6ft by the afternoon (smaller earlier) - with small peelers across the regional points for the arvo session, under strong to gale force SW winds. 

A gradual easing trend will then occur through Friday, probably of a similar size in the morning as per late Thursday but losing two or three feet as the day progresses. Winds will ease but maintain from the W/SW direction.

This weekend (Apr 27 - 28)

Although the storm track will move out of our primary swell window later this week, strong peripheral activity will maintain plenty of surf throughout the state this weekend.

Friday’s strong surf will ease slowly through Saturday, maintaining 2-3ft+ surf before easing a little more into Sunday. Light offshore winds should maintain clean conditions both days. 

Next week (Apr 29 onwards)

Another strong series of fronts is lining up to push below the state this weekend, setting up another decent swell event for the first half of next week.

More on this in Wednesday's update.