Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday February 23rd)

Best Days: Beginners every morning this week, Saturday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small to tiny, inconsistent W/SW swell from this afternoon through Fri
• N/NW tending S/SE winds tomorrow, mod-fresh N/NE tending strong E/NE Wed
• NW tending W then SW winds Thu and N/NW tending W/NW Fri
• Inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Sat with W/NW tending SW winds, similar Sat with strong S/SW winds

Recap

Solid 3-4ft surf on Saturday morning with relatively decent conditions in the morning, dropping right back into yesterday to 1-1.5ft with nice, cleaner conditions. Today was tiny again with dicey conditions.

This week and weekend (Feb 27 – Mar 3)

As touched on last update, tiny levels of W/SW swell are due from this afternoon through Friday, generated by background frontal activity to the South West of Western Australia.

It looks to be mostly 1ft with the odd rare 2ft'er in the mix with a N/NW tending S/SE breeze tomorrow, N/NE tending strong E/NE Wednesday.

Thursday will see morning N'ly winds, shifting W'ly during the day and stronger W/SW into the afternoon as a trough clips us.

As also touched on in Friday's update, from the weekend we've got some better swell potential as a strong Southern Ocean frontal progression moves in from the west.

An initial strong polar low forming today will generate various fetches of W/SW gales in our far western swell window, but trailing this we may see a secondary stronger low firing up on the weekend.

The models diverge on this secondary system, which would bring the most size with EC being weaker, so we'll have to review the expected sized on Wednesday.

Regardless the long-range system should generate inconsistent 2-3ft sets through Saturday and Sunday morning, with the larger swell to possibly follow.

Winds on Saturday should be out of the W/NW, shifting SW through the day, with poor, strong S/SW breezes into Sunday. We'll have a closer look at this Wednesday though.