Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday February 14th)

Best Days: Tomorrow, Friday morning, Saturday morning, Sunday morning, Monday morning for the keen, Tuesday selected spots

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Less consistent, reinforcing mid-period W/SW swell tomorrow, slightly smaller but still fun Fri/Sat
• N/NW tending W/NW then variable winds tomorrow, N/NW tending fresh SE winds Fri, variable tending fresh S/SE Sat
• Inconsistent, long-range W/SW groundswell Sun with variable tending S/SE winds
• Small-mod sized, inconsistent S/SE groundswell building Sun, holding Mon, easing slowly Tue
• Moderate sized mid-period SW swell for late Sun, peaking Mon AM with moderate W/SW tending fresh S/SW then S/SE winds
• Fresh N/NE tending NE winds Tue

Recap

Clean, though small, easing surf yesterday, while today there's been a kick in weak swell from a strong cold front passing us.

This week and next (Feb 15 - 23)

Today's swell will be replaced by some less consistent but stronger mid-period W/SW swell tomorrow, offering slower but fun 2ft sets across Clifton.

This was generated by the earlier stages of the frontal system that moved through and conditions look good with a N/NW offshore, shifting W/NW and then variable into the afternoon.

Friday looks clean again with background W/SW energy maintaining 1-2ft, similar Saturday.

Morning N/NW offshores will give into fresh SE sea breezes, variable Saturday morning ahead of fresh S/SE sea breezes.

Into Sunday, a very inconsistent long-range groundswell is due, generated by a strong polar low that fired up around the Heard Island region earlier in the week. This should provide slow 2ft sets across Clifton with variable morning winds.

We're now looking at a slightly better pulse of mid-period W/SW swell on Monday, generated by a strengthening frontal system on approach to us Saturday, passing under us Sunday.

The swell from the front might show later Sunday but Monday morning looks best with 2-3ft sets, easing through the day.

Winds are a touch dicey in the wake of the front Monday with a moderate W/SW breeze, shifting S/SW and then strong S/SE into the afternoon.

These winds will also spoil a S/SE groundswells that's due to be in the water Sunday, peaking later, easing Monday.

The source is a fetch of severe-gale S/SE winds on the polar shelf, with inconsistent 3ft sets due across Clifton, bigger down the Arm.

The swell should be long-lived and still 2ft to possibly 3ft Tuesday morning, easing.

Winds look to shift N/NE-NE on Tuesday which isn't ideal.

Longer term the outlook is slow until later next week so work the coming swells.