Southern Tasmanian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday January 3rd)

Best Days: This morning, Friday morning, Saturday morning, selected spots Sunday, Monday ahead of the change, Wednesday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• New mid-period SW swell Thu/Fri, smaller but still fun Sat/Sun
• Strong S/SW winds Thu, variable S/SW Fri, freshening from the S/SE
• N tending S/SE winds Sat, moderate N/NE tending strong E/NE winds Sun
• New SW swell for later Sun, peaking Mon with NE tending variable winds ahead of a late SW change
• Strong S/SW winds Tue
• Variable winds Wed AM

Recap

Favourable conditions yesterday with some new swell and variable winds through the morning that freshened through the day.

This morning conditions are nice and clean with fun 2ft sets still in the mix.

This week and weekend (Jan 4 - 7)

Tomorrow will be poor as a trough moves through this evening, bringing a S/SW change that will persist into the morning. Strong, morning S/SW winds will ease and shift S/SE along with a small mix of swells.

A new mid-period SW swell is due to 2ft+ on Friday morning, generated by healthy fetch of strong W/NW winds on the polar shelf earlier this week.

Winds are still a touch dicey Friday morning and variable though possibly S/SW, shifting S/SE and freshening through the day.

Small levels of background swell to 1-2ft is expected on Saturday and Sunday with N’ly winds ahead of fresh S/SE sea breezes on the former, moderate N/NE tending strong E/NE on Sunday.

Later in the day Sunday, some new SW swell is due, with a peak due on Monday with follow up energy due Tuesday/Wednesday.

The source is a good, slow moving polar frontal system that will generate a fetch of strong W/NW winds today and tomorrow, south-west of Western Australia.

Following this, a slow moving fetch of strong W winds should prolong the swell, with Monday offering the initial spike in energy to 2ft, with follow up 2ft sets Tuesday/Wednesday.

Winds will be tricky though with a moderate NE breeze on Monday, tending variable ahead of a late SW change as a trough moves through, with strong S/SW winds into Tuesday.

Wednesday should become cleaner again but we’ll confirm this on Friday.