Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday November 6)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning, Wednesday, Thursday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small background swell tomorrow, with a slightly better pulse Wednesday
• N tending S/SE winds tomorrow with strengthening N/NE tending NE, then NW winds Wed
• Easing swell Thu with variable winds ahead of S/SE sea breezes
• Building W/SW swell later Sun but more so next week

Recap

Small to tiny levels of swell on the weekend and today with light winds early Saturday, lasting longer yesterday and fun this morning.

This week and next (Nov 7 - 12)

Small levels of background mid-period swell energy are due to continue over the coming days thanks to weak but persistent cold fronts traversing the polar shelf.

The best increase in size looks to move in Wednesday, kicking to 2ft+ before easing from 1-2ft on Thursday.

Conditions look good tomorrow morning with offshore winds ahead of fresh S/SE sea breezes, while Wednesday looks to see N/NE winds, shifting NE and strengthening ahead of a late NW change.

This will be ahead of a trough which will weaken into Thursday morning leaving variable winds ahead of gusty S/SE sea breezes.

The weekend looks tiny but a healthy Southern Ocean frontal progression moving through Sunday should generate some decent W/SW swell for later in the day and more so early next week across the South Arm.

The models still diverge on the timing and strength of this incoming swell but winds look to be generally out of the western quadrant. More on this Wednesday.