Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday October 25th)

Best Days: Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday morning, Monday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large S'ly swell tomorrow with strong SW winds
• Moderate sized, easing S swell Fri with W/NW winds ahead of sea breezes
• Easing S swell Sat with strengthening N-N/NE winds
• Fun S/SE groundswell later Sat, peaking Sun with N/NW tending gusty E/NE winds
• Easing swell Mon with N tending W winds

Recap

Yesterday was tiny and this morning the same as the E/SE swell from the weekend continued to fade, mixed with Monday's S'ly windswell.

The surf is now on the build again this afternoon thanks to a mid-latitude low moving across us, projecting strong to gale-force S/SW winds into the South Arm. Conditions are choppy but with sets to 3-4ft.

Solid surf on the build this afternoon

This week and next (Oct 26 – Nov 3)

Following today's mid-latitude low, a broad and elongated polar front is being dragged up behind it, with a fetch of strong to gale-force S/SW winds aimed up through our southern swell window.

This will generate a large, significant S'ly swell for tomorrow, coming in around the 6ft range along with strong SW winds.

The frontal system will move slowly off to the east into Friday allowing winds to ease and tend light W/NW through the morning with solid, easing S'ly sets from 4-5ft or so, smaller and to 2ft to occasionally 3ft Saturday morning.

Sea breezes will kick in on Friday while Saturday should see strengthening N/NE winds.

On the backside of the frontal system, a great fetch of strong to gale-force S/SE winds will produce a reinforcing S/SE groundswell for Saturday afternoon but more so Sunday, peaking to 2ft to occasionally 3ft across Clifton, then easing slowly on Monday.

Winds on Sunday should be offshore from the N/NW ahead of E/NE sea breezes, with N tending gusty W winds on Monday as a front moves across us.

Longer term a healthy Southern Ocean frontal progression moving in early next week looks to bring W/SW swell mid-week. More on this Friday though.