Building surf over the coming days as conditions deteriorate

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday September 27th)

Best Days: Tomorrow, Saturday morning, Monday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • New mid-period W/SW-SW swell tomorrow with N/NW tending W/NW winds
  • Inconsistent W/SW groundswell Fri with strong W tending SW winds
  • Moderate sized pulse of SW-S/SW swell for Fri PM, easing Sat
  • N/NW tending S/SE winds Sat
  • Small new swell Mon with N/NW tending stronger N/NE winds

Recap

A continuation of tiny surf yesterday, though surfable on the right board, smaller today with strengthen NW winds.

This week and next (Sep 28 – Oct 6)

The coming days should provide more options for a surf thanks to a mix of W/SW swells moving in.

Today's strengthening winds are associated with a strengthening low passing under us, with a brief fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds moving quickly east.

This should produce a bump in swell tomorrow to 2ft across Clifton under N/NW tending W/NW winds.

Come Friday our long-range W/SW groundswell is due, generated in our far swell window, to the north-east of the Heard Island region.

Inconsistent 2ft sets are due from this source while another cold front strengthen under us through the day will produce an additional fetch of strong S/SW-SW winds through our southern swell window.

This should produce some additional size to 3ft later in the day, easing Saturday from 2ft+.

Unfortunately winds on Friday will be gusty from the W early, shifting strong SW by mid-morning thanks to the frontal system projecting north-east.

Saturday still looks cleaner with N'ky offshores ahead of S/SE sea breezes.

Another strengthen front quickly clipping the state might produce a small 1-2ft of swell for Monday but following this, next week looks mostly tiny with no significant swell generating systems on the cards.

There's the chance for a deepening low moving across us late week bringing a kick in poor, stormy windswell but more on this Friday.