Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday November 3rd)

Best Days: Selected spots late Friday and Saturday, Monday morning, Tuesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny W/SW swell building Fri PM, persisting Sat, Sun, easing Mon
• Moderate N/NE tending stronger E/NE winds Fri, strong N/NE tending weaker NE on Sat
• Strong S/SW tending S/SE winds Sun, variable tending SW on Mon
• Fun W/SW swell for Tue with NW tending variable winds

Recap

Decent conditions across eastern ends of beaches yesterday with Monday afternoon's swell easing back from 2ft+. This morning it's tiny and wind affected with varying breezes as a trough approaches.

This week and next (Nov 4 – 12)

The surf will remain tiny through tomorrow but on Friday and Saturday a tiny signal of mid-period W'ly swell is likely to be seen across the South Arm.

The source of this swell is a fetch of gale-force W/NW-W winds moving through our western swell window, under Western Australia today, pushing further east tomorrow but dipping east-southeast.

The swell is due to build Friday and likely reach 1-1.5ft later in the day, holding 1-1.5ft on Saturday before easing late.

Locally winds will be ok Friday and from the N/NE tending stronger E/NE, strong from the N/NE on Saturday morning, tending NE while easing later ahead of a trough. These winds and swell will favour some spots over others.

The trough will move through early Sunday bringing poor, strong S/SW winds, shifting S/SE through the day. This will spoil another, tiny W/SW swell for Sunday afternoon, but this (generated by a weak trailing polar front behind the current swell generating system) isn't due to offer much above 1-1.5ft.

The swell looks to ease from a similar size Monday morning with variable winds ahead of another trough and weak change.

This trough will be linked to a slightly better swell producer, with a weak fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds projected through our swell window, west-southwest of us Sunday.

A fun pulse of swell is due from this low on Tuesday, pushing to 2ft+ and with a NW tending variable breeze. We may see a secondary, similar sized follow up swell for Wednesday, then fading into the end of the week, but more on this Friday.