South Arm Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 29th October)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Nothing great this weekend, just a slow improvement as winds ease and today's local windswell abates
• Nice new groundswell later Mon, peaking Tues with NE wind
• Small easing surf and fresh N'ly winds Wed

Recap

Very small, wind affected surf for most of the last two days though we’ve seen building short range windswells this afternoon as gale force winds develop adjacent the East Coast, in association with a low pressure system. 

This weekend (Oct 30 - 31)

Local windswell is our only source of energy for the weekend. So, whatever came up locally late Friday will be steadily on the way down for Saturday.

Local winds are expected to maintain strong to gale force strength overnight, but will back from the south to the west. We’ll see a slow improvement in quality though I’m doubtful for anything especially worthwhile. Maybe some wobbly 2-3ft sets across open south beaches - though the swell direction will be more S/SE than anything, so we’ll see a slightly different response at the coast compared to the standard SW swell direction. Expect average conditions under moderate W’ly winds

This local swell will be all gone by Sunday, and a minor new groundswell won’t make much of a difference to the surf outlook. Fresh W’ly winds will keep conditions below average at exposed spots.

Next week (Nov 1 onwards)

The first half of next week still looks fun.

Monday will start off small, but the leading edge of a multi-front swell event is due to push through the region in the morning, sourced from a strong frontal progression through the Southern Ocean (see below). We should see building size into the afternoon ahead of a peak on Tuesday.

Monday’s winds should improve as easing W’lies become light NW by the afternoon, and a building high pressure system will swing this wind around to the NE on Tuesday - ideal for open beaches.

At its peak - more likely early Tuesday, but also a possibility late Monday - we should see 2-3ft+ sets across exposed South Arm beaches. Easing size into Wednesday will remain clean though blustery under fresh N’ly winds. 

Onshores and tiny leftover surf is then expected Thursday as a weak front slips past the state. 

Looking further ahead, and an active Southern Ocean storm track through the latter part of next week and the weekend is expected to be a little too north in latitude to favour the South Arm, so we may be looking at an extended period of small surf through next week. Though, we’ll keep an eye on this as small changes could rapidly improve our surf prospects.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!