South Arm Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 27th October)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny surf Thurs
• Late increase in blustery windswell Fri, easing Sat
• Good new swell for late Mon/Tues with reasonble tending good conditions
• Small waves for the rest of next week

Recap

It’s been tiny for the last few days, certainly nothing to get excited about.

This week (Oct 28 - 29)

With no new groundswell expected for the next few days, it’ll be slim pickings across the region.

A small cut-off low forming in the Bight today will briefly display strong SW winds within our swell window (overnight tonight, see below) but this will be under a rapid SE trajectory - and perpendicular storm tracks (relative to our swell window) are never a good thing. 

At best, a small flush of swell may arrive on Thursday afternoon or maybe even overnight into Friday morning, briefly lifting the tiny residual conditions - however local winds look iffy too. Keep your expectations low.

Friday will see developing SE tending S/SW gales, as the low crosses through Bass Strait. Current model guidance has sped this up from Monday’s estimates, so we now have the potential for an afternoon increase in short range windswell.

However the short fetch length and limited duration within our swell window (see below) will reduce size and quality prospects - maybe some 4ft sets at open beaches, much smaller at sheltered spots. And, it’ll be very windy to boot.

So, keep your expectations low for waves on Friday - but it's certainly worth casting an arvo eye across the coast.

This weekend (Oct 30 - 31)

The weekend will signal a return to an extended period of westerly gales. 

However, there’ll only be one swell train in the water on Saturday, and that’ll be leftover short range windswell from Friday. The swell window is expected to cease generation late Friday, so we may pick up early 2-3ft sets across the South Arm, and conditions are likely to be average as overnight SW winds sally veer W’ly (at strength).

A small new long range groundswell will fill in on Sunday as the local swell vanishes completely, but it’s not expected to have much size, so we’ll be looking at small, blustery waves at open beaches as winds veer more W/NW. 

Next week (Nov 1 onwards)

The outlook for next week has improved, with the Southern Ocean storm track strengthening and broadening, resulting in a slight upgrade for the late Monday/Tuesday swell.

At its peak, surf size should push 2-3ft across the South Arm, and Tuesday in particular looks good as Monday’s gusty westerly winds gradually ease, and swing temporarily north-east as a high develops to our east and a trough sets up camp in the Bight. 

As such, late Monday and Tuesday are well worth pencilling into the diary.

A slightly disjointed storm track following behind should maintain small waves for the rest of the week.

See you Friday for more details!