Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday October 1st)

Best Days: Monday, Tuesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing SW swell tomorrow with light S/SW tending strong S/SE winds
• Moderate sized SE swell building Sun with strengthening S/SE winds, peaking Mon AM with N tending SE winds
• Easing SE swell Tue with W/NW tending SW winds
• Small W/SW swell building Thu PM with strong S/SW winds, easing Fri with W/NW winds

Recap

Workable E'ly winds yesterday with a good sized SW swell. Today was reported with more size as a reinforcing SW swell filled in but conditions are less than ideal with increasing onshore winds.

This weekend and next week (Oct 2 - 8)

We've got a couple more days of poor conditions as a stalling, broad low pressure system sits south-east of us, directing strong S/SE winds into the south-east corner of the state all weekend. There is a window of lighter S/SW winds at dawn but conditions will be poor along with easing 2ft to maybe 3ft sets from today.

Some rare and good mid-period SE swell is due to spread up into the South Arm Sunday afternoon through Tuesday as the low strengthens early Sunday and multiple embedded troughs generate bursts of E/SE gales through our swell window. Sunday afternoon should see building surf to 3-4ft, but with strengthening S/SE winds, conditions will be poor. Monday morning looks solid and to 4ft with light N'ly winds.

With this SE swell (which will be a lot bigger down the more exposed spots of the arm) there should be some decent options before SE sea breezes kick in.

Tuesday still looks 3ft out of the SE, but easing under W/NW winds ahead of a S/SW change.

Longer term, a relatively weak front tracking up towards Victoria will move through our western swell window, then pushing across us Thursday, bringing an onshore change and some small, weak swell later in the day but more so Friday to 2ft across Clifton. Winds should tip back to the W/NW as another front approaches, but we'll take a closer look at this Monday. Have a great weekend and get stuck into the SE swell.