Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 12th July)

Best Days: Late Wed, Thursday morning, Monday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell for later Wed and Thu AM
• Light E/NE winds Wed PM, N/NE tending NE on Thu
• Tiny W'ly swell for Sun with W tending W/SW winds
• Inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Mon with W/NW tending SW winds

Recap

Tiny waves for beginners all weekend, though effectively flat today.

This weekend and next week (July 13 - 16)

The coming week looks fairly sub-par but there's hope into next week.

The westerly storm track is focussed up towards Western Australia, with mid-latitude fronts and lows projection into them, then dropping south-east into the Bight before moving across Victoria. All this activity is too far north of our swell window resulting in no swell for us.

We've still got a likely pulse of S tending S/SE swell for later Wednesday/Thursday morning from a small low firing up under us tomorrow. A brief fetch of strong to gale-force S/SW-S winds will be generated with 1-2ft sets likely across Clifton.

Winds on Wednesday afternoon look E/NE, with N tending NE winds on Thursday.

On the weekend, one of these fronts pushing in and across South Australia may generate a temporary fetch of W'ly winds just within our swell window, producing a W'ly pulse Sunday to 1-1.5ft if we're lucky. Winds look dicey though and W tending W/SW.

Of greater significance is a strong polar low firing up briefly through our long-range swell window Wednesday and Thursday, east of Heard Island, producing an inconsistent W/SW groundswell for late Sunday and more so Monday to 2ft. Conditions look to be clean in the morning, bumpy through the afternoon.

It looks like we'll see follow up polar frontal activity pushing in closer towards us following this initial polar low, generating better swells for the rest of the week, but check back here on Wednesday for more on this.