Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 5th February)

Best Days: Saturday morning, Monday morning, Friday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing SW swell tomorrow with strong N/NE tending weaker N/NW winds
• Building S/SW swell Sun with developing onshore winds, easing Mon with W/NW tending SW winds
• New E/SE groundswell for Thu PM but with NE winds, easing Fri with NW tending SW winds

Recap

Tiny, clean waves for beginners yesterday, while an inconsistent new swell is in the water today and winds have stayed fairly favourable.

This weekend and next week (Feb 6 - 12)

Our current swell will ease into this afternoon and tomorrow, dropping from 1-2ft across Clifton in the morning along with strong N/NE tending N/NW winds, variable late.

This variable breeze will be ahead of a change, linked to a weak mid-latitude low pushing in from the west. Winds are likely to still be OK dawn Sunday, swinging SW shortly thereafter as the low pushes east.

The fetch behind the low is looking a bit stronger with a good S/SW blow expected to kick up an easy 3ft of swell into the afternoon, easing from 2-3ft Monday morning.

Winds should improve and swing back to the W/NW through the morning Monday, back to the W/SW late morning and SW into the afternoon.

Unfortunately onshore S tending SE winds are due into Tuesday as the swell continues to ease, cleaner Wednesday under a NE’ly, though tiny.

Longer term, a strong low forming south-west of New Zealand looks to generate a significant fetch of severe-gale SE winds on the edge of our swell window, producing a good E/SE groundswell for our East Coast Thursday afternoon and Friday morning.

It should get into the South Arm at the same time, but size wise it only looks to be an inconsistent 2ft or so. Conditions are a bit average Thursday with NE winds, better Friday with a NW tending SW breeze, though we’ll have a closer look at this Monday. Have a great weekend!