Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 21st October)

Best Days: Selected locations tomorrow, possibly early Friday, Saturday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small W/SW swell building tomorrow, easing Wed but with onshore winds at its peak
• Fun W/SW tending SW swell later week though with dicey winds, cleanest Sat

Recap

Tiny, clean waves for beginners Saturday, while a new W/SW swell filled in yesterday though with onshore winds, cleaner today but smaller and dropping back to 1-1.5ft.

This week and weekend (Oct 22 - 26)

The coming week won’t be flat, but it also won’t be overly active with weak polar fronts moving through our medium-close range swell windows.

Our new pulse of W/SW swell for tomorrow will be mostly mid-period energy, generated by a healthy though weakening low which pushed through our swell window last Friday and through the weekend.

The swell should build into the afternoon and reach 1-2ft across Clifton, easing Wednesday from 1-1.5ft.

Winds look unfavourable and E-E/NE, freshening through the day so other locations away from Clifton should offer cleaner conditions. The window on Wednesday for a clean wave is small with variable winds around dawn due to give into a gusty S/SW change. With the tiny swell it’s worth flagging.

Into the end of the week some fun new mid-period W/SW tending SW swell is due, generated by a weak frontal progression tracking east over the coming days. A pre-frontal fetch of W/NW winds will be followed by broader, though weaker W/SW winds, with this activity initially in our western swell window, then south-western swell window.

The first pulse Thursday looks slow and from the west, with 1-2ft sets across Clifton, while Friday should see more consistent 2ft sets, easing Saturday from 1-2ft.

Winds unfortunately look onshore out of the W/SW on Thursday, swinging SW as the front pushes through, with Friday also looking dicey. We may see a morning W/NW breeze, but more on this in Wednesday’s update. Saturday looks fun with N’ly tending NE winds as the swell eases.

Longer term, another slightly healthier polar frontal progression should generate some fun W/SW swell next week, but more on this Wednesday.