Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 23rd November)

Best Days: Thursday afternoon keen surfers, Friday

Recap

Easing surf through the weekend, best for the keen each morning.

Today the surf is tiny and with a light onshore breeze.

This week and weekend (Nov 24 - 29)

We've got a couple of tiny days before we see a strong new W/SW groundswell event late week again, generated by a strong low forming south-west of Western Australia.

This system will form in a similar location to last week's 'bombing low' but will hold more strength while pushing right towards us, strengthening west-southwest of us Wednesday morning and still passing under us with strength on Thursday.

What we'll see is a great fetch of W/SW gales generated in our western swell window, with an intensification to severe-gale on top an active sea state, helping to produce a strong spike of W/SW groundswell for Thursday.

The swell will be small at dawn and around 1-2ft, building rapidly from mid-morning with a peak later in the day to 3-4ft across Clifton. The swell will have lots of west in it so protected spots will be much smaller.

Winds on Thursday morning will be OK and out of the W/NW, but shifting SW and gusty into the afternoon as the swell kicks.

Friday looks much better across selected breaks with a freshening N/NE breeze and easing W/SW swell from the 3ft range across Clifton.

The weekend looks much smaller and back to 1-2ft, but a secondary weak polar front moving in behind the strong low should keep 1-2ft sets hitting Clifton Sunday.

Conditions are a little dicey Saturday/Sunday with a W tending SW breeze on the former, SW on the later as troughs move through the region. We'll have to review this Wednesday though.

Longer term a distant polar storm is due to form in our swell window, but project north-east up towards South Australia and north of our swell window on the weekend. We may see a small W/SW swell from this mid-next week, but check back Wednesday for the latest regarding this.