South Arm Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 9th October)

Best Days: Beginners in protected spots tomorrow morning, similar Sunday morning, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday

Recap

Choppy, tiny waves on the coast yesterday with strong winds out of the east, cleaner today and with a little uptick in in size, better than expected and to a clean 1-2ft.

This weekend and next week (Oct 10 - 16)

The weekend should be fun for beginners with inconsistent levels of W/SW groundswell energy due though local winds tomorrow won’t be too ideal. A very slow 1-1.5ft wave should be seen tomorrow with fresh W’ly tending SW winds.

Sunday should be cleaner with a NW offshore but tiny 1ft+ waves, giving into sea breezes.

We then look at slightly better but still inconsistent W/SW groundswells due next week.

Back to back pulses are due Monday and Tuesday, the first being generated in our distant swell window, by a broad, healthy and strong frontal progression east of Heard Island.

The main issue with this swell is the distance between us and the source, resulting in a loss in size and consistency.

The swell may be seen late Sunday but a peak is due Monday morning to mostly 2ft, with the rare 3ft’er possible for the patient.

Tuesday’s swell is now looking better, generated by a strong, tight and intense low firing up on the tail of the initial progression.

The low to start with, will be too far north, generating a great fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds.

It’s due to weaken slightly but dip east-southeast and more into our swell window while pushing closer towards us. The low will keep its strength while passing under us early next week, resulting in an extended W/SW tending SW groundswell event.

The initial pulse of inconsistent W/SW energy should build Tuesday and reach 2-3ft across Clifton into the afternoon, with Wednesday easing back from the SW and to 3ft.

Thursday should still be 1-2ft and fun but dropping. Winds look great and N tending E/NE on Monday, but a trough will bring a strong S/SW change Tuesday, back offshore Wednesday but strengthening from the N/NE tending E/NE.. clean again Thursday. We’ll have a closer look at this on Monday though. Have a great weekend!