Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 5th August)

Best Days: Tuesday, Wednesday morning, Saturday protected spots, Monday protected spots

Recap

A mix of swells for Saturday but with onshore winds, cleaning up a little into Sunday morning but still bumpy and lumpy with onshore winds all night.

This morning the swell was still solid and coming in around 3ft with a light offshore wind.

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This week and next (Aug 6 - 11)

While today's swell should have eased through the day, we've got a reinforcing pulse of S/SE groundswell due tomorrow, generated by a great fetch of severe-gale to storm-force S/SW winds on the edge of our swell window over the weekend.

We might see a bit more size than expected on Friday with 3-4ft sets likely across Clifton tomorrow morning, easing slowly through the day and down further from 2ft Wednesday morning.

Winds tomorrow will be great and offshore all day, moderate from the N/NW and then W/NW shifting late afternoon W/SW on Wednesday.

A small background S/SE groundswell may be seen into Thursday but a deepening low moving across us will bring deteriorating conditions and a moderate to large stormy S/SE swell into Friday and Saturday, superseding the background swell.

A dawn N/NE breeze is due to swing E and then SE through Thursday morning, strengthening out of the S/SE into the evening, with the swell due to build through Friday along with SW tending strong S/SE winds.

At this stage we're looking at building stormy surf to 3-4ft later Friday, easing from 4-5ft Saturday with S/SW tending SW winds, opening up a few decent locations.

Of greater significance is a vigorous polar low that's due to develop south-west of us on Friday evening, with a great fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW-SW winds forecast to be projected up through our southern swell window as the front moves up into the Tasman Sea.

A large, powerful S/SW groundswell is expected from this storm, filling in Monday and peaking around 6ft across Clifton with W/SW winds. This will favour protected locations again with plenty of days to get a surf in at selected spots.

Check back here on Wednesday for confirmation on these exciting swell events.