Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 29th July)

Best Days: Tomorrow AM protected spots, Wednesday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday

Recap

Small clean waves to 2ft most of the weekend with a mix of swells, bigger than expected on Saturday.

Today onshore winds have moved in along with 2ft of swell, and a strong new S/SW groundswell should have built late across the coast.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week and weekend (Jul 30 – Aug 4)

Last night and today, a strong low forming south-southwest of us has been aiming a fetch of S/SW gales in our southern swell window, generating a moderate sized S/SW groundswell that should of shown across the coast later today.

A peak is due overnight, but the slow moving nature of the low will see solid sets holding into tomorrow morning and good sized waves Wednesday.

We're expecting 4-5ft waves tomorrow morning, easing slowly through the day and then backing off from the 3ft range Wednesday.

Winds tomorrow will remain onshore and out of the W/SW, favouring protected spots, N/NW tending variable on Wednesday.

Moving into the end of the week we'll start to see increased activity to our south-west as a strengthening node of the Long Wave Trough moves across New Zealand, steering and strengthening polar storms up and under us.

The first will be a very strong pre-frontal fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds, followed by a weaker post-frontal W/sW fetch, resulting in a building swell Thursday afternoon likely to 3ft by late, but with a strong W/SW change. Friday morning should reveal a touch more size to 3ft to possibly 4ft, though easing steadily with N/NW tending W/NW winds.

Of greater significance is a much stronger polar storm due to develop south-west of us on Friday.

A broad and encompassing fetch of severe-gale to storm-force SW winds are forecast to be generated in our southern swell window, moving slowly and projecting towards New Zealand over the weekend.

A large and powerful long-period S/SW groundswell is expected, building Saturday afternoon and reaching 6ft+ by dark. A slow drop in size is then expected Sunday from 4-6ft. Winds look onshore from the W/SW on Saturday and NW Sunday, opening up plenty of options for experienced surfers.

We'll have another look at this swell in the coming two forecast updates though.