Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Tuesday 3rd July)

Best Days: Sun/Mon: strong swells but very windy; very small at sheltered spots. Tues PM/Wed: better swells from the SW with lighter conditions (relative to the current situation).

Recap: Tiny, windy surf persisting.

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This week, this weekend and next week (Jul 1 onwards)

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Note: Today’s Forecaster Notes will be brief, as Craig is away on annual leave. Also, these Forecaster Notes will be updated Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays for the next few weeks.

Still no change to the short term outlook. 

We’re in the midst of a blustery synoptic pattern as a series of strong Southern Ocean fronts push through the Bight. They’re still positioned out of our swell window so we’re looking at small flukey swells at best from now through until Sunday, when the storm track will eventually slide into our swell window. 

However, building size through Sunday and into Monday will coincide with a swing in the wind direction to the W/SW (also at gale to storm force strength). And with the swell direction still retaining quite a lot of west, it’s likely to be small at best across those sheltered points that can handle the wind conditions. That being said, open beaches across the South Arm should see plenty of size through this period, peaking in the 3-5ft range so it’ll be worth investigating - just keep your expectations low. 

To be honest, much better surf is expected next week, as the storm track (associated with a slow moving Long Wave Trough) pushes further east into the Tasman Sea, allowing winds to ease locally.

A series of intense trailing secondary fronts will hug the Ice Shelf (see below) - much further away from our coasts than the upcoming storm track - but they’ll be position as such to allow for a little more south in the swell direction. With better conditions (relative to the current pattern) we should see some favourable surf opportunities through the region - this energy is expected to arrive through Tuesday afternoon, holding into Wednesday. It's hard to be confident in eventual surf size right now but ballpark around 4ft through open South Arm beaches for now.

Otherwise, the long term outlook into the end of next week and beyond suggests a return to an unfavourable storm track through the northern Bight, which may bring about another period of small window surf for the South Arm. 

More on that in Thursday’s update.