Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Tuesday 19th June)

Best Days: Sat: small windy surf. Sun: solid windy surf. Mon: easing, improving conditions. 

Recap: Building windswells Sunday eased steadily into Monday and we’re now back with tiny conditions across the coast. 

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This week, this weekend and next week (Jun 20 onwards)

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Note: Today’s Forecaster Notes will be brief, as Craig is away on annual leave. Also, these Forecaster Notes will be updated Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays for the next few weeks.

Our broader swell window has been devoid of activity for the last few days so we’re looking at an extended spell of tiny surf for the rest of the working week. Winds will remain out of the west thru’ north-west.

A powerful Southern Indian Ocean low has been developing over the last few days, and whilst it’s expected to generate large surf for WA on Thurs/Fri, it’s a little too north in latitude to benefit the South Arm.

Fortunately, a related polar low to the south is in a much better position (see chart below) - though still a very large distance away - and this will offer a baseline of small to moderate long period groundswell for the weekend, in addition to some solid short range post-frontal activity generated as this system pushes to the east through our swell window. 

Saturday afternoon may see a small rise in surf size as the groundswell (maybe some inconsistent 2ft+ sets) but Sunday is on track to see a more substantial increase with a mix of swells generating windy 3-5ft surf across open beaches. We’ll see a brief period of W/SW winds trailing the passage of a cold front, but a secondary front is expected to rear up form the west, swinging the winds back around to the W/NW. 

This swell won’t be very long lived, and we’re then looking at easing swells through the start of next week. There’s not much on the long term radar at this stage. 

As such, the weekend is your best opportunity to capitalise on. More in Thursday’s update.