Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Saturday 16th June)

Best Days: Sat: small surf slowly building; fresh W/NW winds. Sun: protected spots only, under southerly gales. Tues: very small clean leftovers at exposed beaches. 

Recap: Wave heights have remained very small over the last few days thanks to a regional westerly swell direction.

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This weekend and next week (Jun 16 onwards)

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Note: Today’s Forecaster Notes will be brief, as Craig is away on annual leave. Also, these Forecaster Notes will be updated Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays for the next few weeks.

The synoptic chart looks very impressive with a deep low immediately to our south, and Cape Sorell buoy showing a lot of energy - however  the main fetch around the western flank of the low is outside our swell window, aimed up into SA and western Vic.

As such, we’ll see small (though, building) sideband energy today ahead of a large day of windy waves on Saturday as the low tracks to the east and times a southerly fetch aims itself into Storm Bay. 

The close position of the low means that the swell will be locally generated, and as the low exits to the east we’ll see a concurrent drop in size through Monday. So whilst Sunday should see stormy 4-5ft+ surf across open beaches (smaller at protected spots), we’ll see a steady drop in size though Monday and by Tuesday - when winds will swing light and variable - we’ll be back to small residual 1-2ft surf at best. 

Surf conditions look great from Tuesday through to next weekend under a northerly airstream, thanks to a slow moving high pressure system and a weakening front approaching from the west. But unfortunately, we’re not expecting any major new swells through this time period - the current atmospheric pattern is in a bit of a block, and upstream though our swell window there’s not a lot of favourable storm action east of Heard Island right now. We’ll see a couple of minor long period swells keeping exposed coasts rideable with small surf through the middle to latter part of the week, but there won’t be much action in the South Arm.

The regional block does look like it’ll break down through the first half of next week though, which should lead to a renewal of strong swell activity from next weekend onwards, however current forecasts suggests the storm track may be a little too north to completely benefit the South Arm with any major sign. Regardless, it’s a swing in the right direction and next weekend through the following week should see a return to surfable options. More on this in Tuesday’s update.