Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 9th May)

Best Days: Novelty breaks Friday, Monday

Recap

A strong kick in W/SW groundswell to 3ft yesterday from a very intense and strengthening low passing under us Monday evening.

This swell was expected to drop rapidly into today, but we've seen an even larger S/SW groundswell provide 3-4ft sets at dawn, dropping back quickly through the morning. Looking at the satellite observations and we can see that there was a secondary storm-force S/SW fetch wrapping around the underside of the low, and this was the source of today's swell.

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This weekend and next week (May 10 - 13)

We've got a good new W/SW groundswell due across the coast tomorrow, but this will be overshadowed by a local building stormy S/SE windswell as a deep and powerful low moves across us.

This W/SW groundswell that was expected to build to 2-3ft tomorrow afternoon will succumb to strengthening S/SE winds from mid-morning (variable from the W/NW early).

We're expected to see winds reach 20-25kt+ into the afternoon and this will kick up a rapid increase in S/SE windswell to a junky 2-3ft.

Into tomorrow evening and winds will reach the gale-force range, aimed straight in to the south-east corner of the state, generating a large stormy S/SE swell for Friday.

We're looking at stormy waves in the 6ft+ range, in line with model guidance along with gale-force S/SE winds, easing through the day.

As these winds ease, so will the swell and into Saturday the low will push up the East Coast resulting in weaker easing surf from 3-4ft or so with fresh S'ly winds.

Come Sunday we're not looking at much leftover size and conditions will remain poor with a S/SW breeze.

Next week onwards (May 14 onwards)

Conditions will improve into Monday next week and a new new S/SW groundswell should be in the water, generated by a polar fetch of severe-gale W'ly winds Friday evening and Saturday.

2ft sets are due with all day offshore W/NW winds.

Into the middle of next week a strong front pushing up into us looks to bring an onshore increase in SW swell, but more on this Friday.