Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 27th February)

Best Days: Tuesday morning, Wednesday morning for beginners, later Friday keen surfers, Saturday

Recap

Fun clean 2ft waves Saturday morning, pulsing a little further during the day as a new W/SW groundswell peaked.

Sunday morning continued to offer fun clean easing surf from 2ft, tiny to 1-1.5ft this morning.

This week and weekend (Feb 28 – Mar 5)

Tomorrow's new pulse of W/SW groundswell is still on track, but the size looks to be more around 2ft than anything bigger.

This was produced by an intense polar low over the weekend, with satellite observations confirming a fetch of gale to severe-gale W'ly winds through our western swell window.

This swell should arrive shortly after dawn, kicking to 2ft, but then easing from 1ft+ Wednesday morning.

Winds are good tomorrow morning before sea breezes kick in, while Wednesday looks dicey as a dawn variable wind is expected to give into a weak SE change. We'll likely see winds just remain variable through the morning before sea breezes kick in.

The surf will remain tiny into Thursday, but later in the week a good new SW groundswell is expected from a deepening and strengthening polar low Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

This low will generate a good fetch of gale to severe-gale W'ly winds through our south-western swell window. The swell should build strongly later Friday, from a tiny 1-1.5ft early to 3ft later in the day.

A peak is expected overnight, with easing 2ft to possibly 3ft waves Saturday morning.

Winds on Friday unfortunately look poor with a S'ly onshore in the wake of a change Thursday, while Saturday looks nice with a light N'ly offshore.

Longer term, a deepening low off the southern NSW coast may direct SE winds across is early next week, generating some junky S/SE windswell, but more on this Wednesday.