Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 28th November)

Best Days: Wednesday morning, Thursday morning, Friday morning, Saturday, Sunday morning

Recap

Building surf with a gusty W'ly wind on Saturday leaving limited options for a decent wave.

Sunday morning was better as the swell hung in at 3ft with an early light onshore that tended more offshore before sea breezes kicked in.

Today the swell was still around 2ft with a morning W/NW breeze before sea breezes kicked in.

This week (Nov 29 – Dec 2)

Tomorrow is expected to be mostly tiny with a W/SW swell around 1ft+ or so, while the S'ly swell due into later in the day and more so Wednesday is still on track.

A small intense mid-latitude low tracking east through our southern swell window this morning produced a fetch of strong to gale-force S'ly winds, confirmed by satellite.

A late increase in S'ly swell is due tomorrow, likely to 2ft, but with afternoon sea breezes, while a peak is due Wednesday morning to 2-3ft.

A steady drop in size should be seen Wednesday afternoon, back further from 1-2ft Thursday.

Clean conditions are due each morning before afternoon sea breezes kick in.

Into the end of the week an inconsistent but fun W/SW groundswell is due, produced by a broad but relatively weak polar low currently south-west of WA.

This is generating a fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds in our long-range swell window, and should come in around 1-2ft on Friday morning, with offshore winds.

This weekend onwards (Dec 3 onwards)

A good W/SW groundswell is due over the weekend, produced by an intense and slow moving mid-latitude low developing south of WA, tracking east-southeast more into our swell window through the end of the week and Saturday.

Initially a fetch of gale to severe-gale will be just in our western swell window, with a better aligned fetch of slightly weaker W/SW gales generated as the low moves closer.

A large W/SW groundswell will impact the West Coast from late Friday, with the swell moving into the South Arm Saturday, building to a strong 3ft into the afternoon, and then easing slowly from 2-3ft Sunday morning.

Conditions are looking favourable most of the weekend as well, but we'll confirm this Wednesday.