Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 2nd November)

Best Days: Thursday morning, early Sunday morning, Monday

Recap

Small to tiny waves yesterday with clean conditions, but today a new stronger pulse of W/SW groundswell came in under expectations with only 1-2ft waves reported on the coast. Conditions were dicey early but improved through the day.

This week and weekend (Nov 3 - 6)

While this morning's swell failed to really come in at 2-3ft, we should still see 2ft sets tomorrow morning, easing through the day with NW-W/NW winds.

Friday is then due to be flat.

Now, the outlook for the weekend has unfortunately changed, which is disappointing because the models were in alignment early in the week.

The strong cold outbreak due across the state is still expected but the fetch of SW gales generated through our swell window will be much shorter-lived.

This fetch is expected through the early hours of Saturday morning, generating a moderate sized increase in SW swell through the day, reaching 3ft+ into the afternoon, a smaller 2ft early.

The swell will drop back quickly overnight but another less favourably aligned front will race in and keep 2ft sets kicking through the afternoon. Monday will see easing less consistent energy from the early stages of this front, from 2ft Monday.

With the passing fronts, winds will vary with a poor W/SW breeze Saturday and then early N/NW winds Sunday, tending gusty W/SW through the morning with the second front. Monday should be great with a N/NW breeze all day.

Into early next week we may see a new S'ly pulse for Tuesday from a fetch of S'ly winds wrapping around the base of the original low moving through Saturday. This will be at polar latitude and take a couple of days to arrive. Unfortunately another onshore change may push through, but more on this Friday.