Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 24th August)

Best Days: Friday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday

Recap

A kick in S'ly swell through yesterday but a bit smaller than expected with, 2-3ft sets developing across Clifton, easing back from a tiny 0.5-1ft today.

This week and weekend (Aug 25 - 28)

Tiny levels of S/SE swell will continue tomorrow from a weak fetch of S'ly winds to our south, coming at 1ft across Clifton. Conditions will be OK early with a W/NW breeze, tending SW through the day.

Friday's inconsistent SW groundswell is still on track and should offer stronger but inconsistent sets to 2ft across Clifton through the day, easing later and further into Saturday. NW tending W/NW winds will keep conditions clean Friday, similar through Saturday.

Later Saturday and more so Sunday a new SW groundswell is due across Clifton, produced by a relatively weak but persistent polar front firing up along the polar shelf.

The front will project right up and across us on Saturday evening, with the swell peaking Sunday to 2ft to possibly 3ft across Clifton. Winds should improve rapidly in the wake of the change with a NW tending W/NW breeze.

Now, of greater importance is the development of a much more significant polar frontal progression through our prime swell window over the weekend.

A relatively benign polar front developing south-southwest of WA will strengthen significantly while moving along the polar shelf, projecting north-east towards us, generating a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force SW winds through our southern swell window.

A large long-period S/SW groundswell will result, building Monday to a strong 4-5ft+ across Clifton and easing from 3-5ft Tuesday morning.

Winds on Monday will be from the W/NW tending S/SW and then SE, with Tuesday seeing a return to N/NW offshores, E/NE into the afternoon.

Beyond this some smaller reinforcing SW swell is due through the middle of the week but to no major size. More on this Friday.