Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 20th November)

Best Days: Sunday onwards

Recap

Nothing to really talk about the last couple of days with tiny surf and less than ideal winds. The coming forecast is quite the contrast though.

This weekend and next (Nov 21 - 27)

From the weekend we'll see a flurry of strong frontal activity steered up through our swell windows under two phases of the Long Wave Trough.

The initial phase is currently directing a strengthening polar frontal progression from the south-east Indian Ocean, up towards us, generating a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds through our swell window.

This should produce a large SW groundswell that's expected to fill in Sunday very quickly, jumping from 3ft or so through the morning to now what looks to be 4-5ft later in the day across Clifton. Tomorrow the afternoon will see building levels of windswell to 2ft or so late.

Winds on Sunday look great with NW tending W/NW breeze, keeping protected locations clean.

A drop in size is due Monday back to 3-5ft or so, but a secondary weaker front on the tail of the main progression should generate a secondary reinforcing SW pulse for the afternoon to 3-4ft or so as winds continue from the W/NW.

From Tuesday the second node of the Long Wave Trough will move in, with it being more pronounced, projecting the frontal activity further north and more into Victoria.

This will project front after front through our swell window, producing further pulses of swell for the rest of the week.

The first front is due to push through Monday and early Tuesday, kicking up a strong increase in W/SW swell later Tuesday to 3-4ft, holding Wednesday morning, and also Thursday as another front pushes up and into us.

The surf should drop back from Friday as the frontal activity continues east, but we'll confirm this Monday.

Winds look to remain favourable and offshore from the W/NW Tuesday and Wednesday with less favourable W/SW breezes Thursday, swinging back offshore Friday. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!