Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 16th November)

Best Days: Tuesday morning, Friday morning, Saturday morning, Sunday afternoon and Monday

Recap

Onshore winds ruined a small kick in swell Saturday, while Sunday was better with ideal conditions for beginners with clean easing 1-1.5ft sets.

Today was tiny and only worth a look at exposed spots.

This week (Nov 17 - 20)

Tomorrow's small kick in SW swell is still on track, but more likely to be in the 2ft range rather than 2ft+ across Clifton. This was generated yesterday and this morning but a polar low under the state.

Surf through the morning for the most size, with the swell due to ease into the afternoon and become tiny through Wednesday.

N/NE - N/NW winds are due tomorrow morning, with the chance of SE sea breezes, while Wednesday should see morning offshore NW winds, tending W/NW through the day.

There's nothing significant due across the coast until late in the week, when a deepening mid-latitude low pushing across us, aims a very short-lived fetch of strong S/SE winds through our swell window.

A small kick of S/SE swell to 1-2ft may be seen Friday with hopefully NW winds. We'll have another look at this again Wednesday.

This weekend onwards (Nov 21 onwards)

Friday's kick in S/SE swell will fade rapidly through Saturday, but into Sunday and Monday a good SW groundswell is expected.

This should be generated as a strong and multi-staged polar frontal progression swings in from the Heard Island region, along the Antarctic shelf before pushing north-east up towards us Saturday.

An initial increase in SW windswell is likely Saturday ahead of some better groundswell Sunday, kicking strongly through the afternoon to 3-4ft and with NW tending W'ly winds.

A drop from a similar size is likely Monday morning as favourable winds continue.