Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 12th October)

Best Days: Friday morning, Sunday morning, Monday afternoon

Recap

Fun clean kick in SW swell to 2ft Saturday with offshore winds, while Sunday was tiny and bumpy with a variable breeze, freshening from the SSE through the day and continuing into this morning.

This week (Oct 13 – 16)

Cleaner conditions are due tomorrow morning, with a small leftover swell to 1ft to maybe 2ft.

Wednesday is looking great for beginners with tiny 1ft waves with offshore tending NE winds.

There may be a slight kick in W/SW swell later Wednesday, but this isn't due to get above 1-1.5ft, easing from a similar size Thursday morning.

Into Friday, a tricky pulse of W/SW swell is due from an unfavourably tracking but strengthening frontal system (low) to our west on Wednesday evening and Thursday. A fetch of NW gales will be aimed towards the Antarctic shelf, with a small tight fetch of severe-gale W'ly winds at the lows core.

I don't like the track or development of this system at all, but we should still see fun 1-2ft sets across Clifton Friday morning, easing into the afternoon. Winds are looking OK at this stage with a weak change Thursday afternoon due to tend variable by morning.

This weekend onwards (Oct 17 onwards)

The outlook from this weekend onwards is better with a series of strong lows due to move in from the west from Thursday.

This will be under the influence of a node (peak) of the Long Wave Trough pushing east across the south of the country.

The first low will be better aligned, with a secondary stronger system, being a touch further north than ideal.

In saying this, both systems should produce W/SW swell in the 2-3ft+ range for Sunday morning and Monday afternoon respectively. Winds are looking good and from the NW to W/NW for the most part, but we'll review this Wednesday.