Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 20th March)

Best Days: Saturday morning, Sunday for beginners, Monday

Recap

The surf was tiny but clean yesterday morning, ideal for beginners. Today also started tiny, but a strong new increase in W/SW groundswell is due later today, with Cape Sorell jumping nicely through the day. We should see 2-3ft sets across Clifton, but conditions are poor with an onshore SW breeze.

This weekend and next week (Mar 21 - 27)

Later today's kick in W/SW groundswell was generated by the frontal system pushing across us this afternoon. The swell is expected to peak overnight but we should still see 2ft to nearly 3ft sets early across Clifton before fading quickly into the afternoon and further Sunday from 1ft to maybe 2ft.

Conditions should be great with N/NW offshores tomorrow morning before afternoon SE sea breezes kick in.

Sunday should then see N/NW tending N/NE breezes.

As touched on in Wednesday's update, a very long-period SW groundswell showing on the charts Sunday afternoon and evening has no size at all attached with it, generated in our far swell window below Heard Island.

The low that generated this long-period energy is now south-west of WA though, generating a weakening fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds.

This low should push east over the coming days while weakening, producing an inconsistent SW groundswell for Monday coming in at 2-3ft across Clifton (peaking through the middle of the day). The morning may be a little undersized and around 2ft.

Winds are workable but strong with a gusty N/NE'ly through the morning that should swing more N/NW into the afternoon ahead of an overnight change.

Tuesday is then looking poor with onshore SW winds and a mix of easing SW groundswell and new S/SW windswell to 2-3ft.

Into the end of the week a new SW groundswell is due Thursday, but only to 2ft or so Thursday afternoon, easing Friday.

Longer term unfavourably aligned but strong polar frontal activity to our south-west should continue to produce pulses of SW groundswell into the weekend and following week, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend.