Southern Tasmania Forecast (issued Monday 22nd September)

Best Days: Wednesday morning, early Friday, Saturday

Recap

Small waves padded out the weekend with variable winds Saturday morning and persistent offshores Sunday with a better swell.

Today the swell was still holding around 2ft on the sets but should of eased into the afternoon as S/SE sea breezes kicked in.

This week (Sep 23 - 28)

Tomorrow is expected to start off tiny but a new SW groundswell due through the afternoon and Wednesday morning has unfortunately been downgraded a touch. This is due to the polar low generating the swell forming a little later than ideal but also not being as favourably aligned.

Still we should see inconsistent 2ft sets developing across Clifton tomorrow afternoon before easing from 1-2ft Wednesday morning under persistent offshore winds.

A secondary pulse of inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due through Thursday afternoon but only an early W'ly is expected with fresh W/SW winds creating bumpy conditions into the afternoon.

Of greater importance is a better mix of long-range and close-range W/SW-SW groundswell due through Friday and Saturday.

The long-range energy has and is still being generated by a vigorous polar frontal progression that's currently south-west of WA, with it expected to weaken while pushing closer to us tomorrow.

A very inconsistent W/SW swell should result, building to 2-3ft+ at Clifton through the afternoon Friday from a smaller 1-2ft early.

A secondary small polar low racing in behind it during the end of this week should generate a secondary SW swell for later Friday and Saturday morning, with both easing from 2-3ft across Clifton.

Unfortunately winds on Friday will again be good early before the swell kicks and from the NW but a fresh W/SW change is due during the morning

Saturday will be the day to surf though with offshore N/NW tending W/NW winds. Come Sunday there isn't expected to be any major size left with fresh to strong N/NW winds.

Longer term we should see some good W/SW groundswell into early to mid next week as a vigorous polar front is steered from south-west of WA up into SA and Vicco, but we'll look at this in more detail Wednesday.