Southern Tasmania Forecast (issued Wednesday 14th Jul)

Best Days: Tuesday and Wednesday across various spots,, early Friday, Saturday

Recap

Saturday started slow with a building groundswell and W'ly winds favouring protected breaks. The swell kicked into the afternoon but conditions were poor as an onshore change moved through.

Sunday was cleaner but under forecast with only small 2ft waves across Clifton under W/NW winds.

Today a secondary pulse of swell kept 2ft sets hitting Clifton and winds were favourable all day with a N/NW tending variable breeze.

This week (Jul 15 – Jul 18)

A fresh pulse of W/SW groundswell is due into tomorrow afternoon, generated by an unfavourable but strong fetch of pre-frontal W/NW winds through our western swell window. This should keep 2ft sets hitting Clifton into the afternoon under N/NW tending N/NE winds, opening up some better options across the region.

A drop in size is due into Wednesday as N'ly winds persist, but into the end of the week we should see some better W/SW groundswell pushing in.

An initial pulse on Thursday is currently being generated by a strong polar frontal progression currently pushing across and under WA. The fetch within our swell window isn't anything special but we should still see Clifton increasing back to an inconsistent 2ft through the afternoon. Winds look to turn onshore though from a morning NW'ly around to the W/SW into the afternoon.

The swell should hold into Friday morning but a secondary polar front pushing right up into us through the day will kick up a stronger increase in SW swell but with onshore winds to 3ft.

This weekend onwards (Jul 19 onwards)

Friday's swell is expected to back off through the weekend, but Saturday morning should still see some size to 3ft early across Clifton. Winds should also swing back to the W/NW through the morning, creating clean conditions in protected locations.

Longer term the outlook is a little unclear due to model divergence but we'll have another look at everything again on Wednesday.