Southern Tasmania Forecast (issued Friday 11th Jul)

Best Days: Early Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday at exposed spots

Recap

A good pulse of long-range W/SW groundswell filled in yesterday to 1-2ft across Clifton with morning offshores that remained so longer than expected into the early afternoon ahead of a late onshore change. The swell held at 1-2ft into this morning as offshores kicked in again but a drop in size should be seen this afternoon.

This weekend and Monday (Jul 12 – Jul 14)

There's been no real change to the W/SW groundswell due across the coast tomorrow, with the strong polar frontal system generating this swell coming in as forecast.

A solid kick in size is due through the day tomorrow, peaking at 3ft+ into the afternoon. Winds should be W/NW early morning but a a shift to the SW is due during the day and this will create average conditions. There's a chance for a late shift back to the W/NW so keep a close eye on local wind obs.

A secondary pulse of SW groundswell for Sunday should be produced by a couple of weaker but more favourably aligned polar fronts moving up towards us today and tomorrow.

This should keep 3ft waves breaking across Clifton most of Sunday before easing back Monday from 2-3ft. Winds should hold from the W/NW most of Sunday creating good conditions in protected spots, with NW tending variable winds opening up a lot more options Monday as the swell eases.

It won't be long before we see another pulse of W/SW groundswell and this is due to arrive through Tuesday. The source of this swell will be a strong but less than favourably aligned frontal system pushing east-southeast from under WA. While the track is unfavourable the fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds through our western swell should kick up some nice 2ft sets through the day Tuesday. The swell should ease into Wednesday back from 1ft to occasionally 2ft.

Strengthening N/NE winds will open up a few more options across the coast, so it may be worth hunting around for a wave.

A couple more long-range and inconsistent W/SW groundswell pulses are due through the second half of next week as the westerly storm track fires up to the south-west of WA and pushes through the Bight. This activity will be just a bit too north for us with only small and inconsistent 1-2ft waves due through Thursday and Friday.

Next weekend may see more size as the activity moves more favourably into our swell window, but we'll review this Monday.