South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 26th Mar)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Slowly building trade swell all week though with freshening SE winds, tending E/SE north of the border
• Complex scenario unfolding for the weekend with strengthening NE winds and building swells Sat
• Still a chance winds could swing offshore Sun with sizey E/NE swell on offer
• E/NE swells persist into next week with winds tending offshore as trough moves offshore

Recap

Not much to recap with mostly junky onshore surf in the 2 occ. 3ft range under constant E through E/SE winds. Long period S/SE groundswell showed on the regions wave buoys but was barely noticeable in the water apart from the occ. 2ft set at NENSW S swell magnets. More onshore wind is ahead with building swells. 

Still small and gurgly across most of the region today

This week (Mar 26- 28)

A major tropical event is unfolding as an active phase of the MJO sparks a late season monsoonal surge. That is seeing a monsoon trough stretched across the continent with a TC in the Indian Ocean well offshore from the Pilbara, a monsoonal low inland of the NT/QLD border and monsoonal activity in the Coral Sea. It’s likely we will see remnants of the inland monsoon low approach the SEQLD/NSW Coast during the weekend, dragging a moist NE flow down from the tropics and creating a mini black nor-easter event. We’ll see surf from this NE-E/NE infeed propagate from the sub-tropics down to temperate regions over the weekend. Models are then mixed as to whether the southern edge of the trough exits the coast and forms a surface low, potentially with the return flow generating S swells into next week. Lots of action ahead with this  dynamic pattern so keep tabs because there will be revisions as we get closer to the event.

Not much in the short run to deal with. High pressure in the Tasman maintains a ridge along the NENSW/QLD coast with winds shifting a little more SE through Thurs. With most spots blown out well be looking at small peelers on the Points in the 2-3ft range, smaller into the more protected inner bays.

Winds shift more E’ly Fri as the inland trough moves southwards, potentially approaching SEQLD. Winds through the Coral Sea increase as an infeed into the trough so expect a blown out day with an increase in E-E/NE swell becoming noticeable through the back half of the day, although a much more significant increase is on track for the weekend. Only the most protected points will have a cleanish wave in the 2-3ft range, possibly getting up over 3ft into the latter part of the day. Everywhere else will be a blown out mess.

This weekend (Mar 29 - 30)

We’ll see building NE-E/NE swells through Sat as the trough drags the strong infeed down the NSW Coast. With that will come an increase in onshore N/NE-NE tending NE-E/NE winds so the day may end up a write-off for most spots apart from the few robust backbeaches. We’ll see surf build from 4-5ft into the 6ft range, perhaps a notch bigger depending on windspeeds in the fetch. 

If Sat is a write-off, Sun has some potential to be very good indeed although confidence is still undermined by model variability. No problems with surf size- there’ll be plenty of E/NE swell in the 4-6ft range from winds feeding into the trough. Local winds will be the decisive factor. EC is suggesting a portion of the trough line moving offshore from the NENSW/SEQLD coast with an offshore flow developing. Under that scenario we’ll be looking at potentially a great day of surf. 

GFS and other models are still offering scenarios where the trough moves off the Fraser Coast with an onshore flow remaining in place for areas south of that- ie all of SEQLD and NENSW. Check back Fri for the details. 

Next week (Mar 31 onwards)

The NE-E/NE infeed remains slow moving into early next week- feeding into a N-S trough as it slowly moves east across the Tasman. That leads to moderate/high confidence we’ll see a couple of days of good quality E/NE swell through Mon—Wed with tricky winds, potentially offshore or light/variable but by Wed at a maximum we should see the trough move offshore and winds turn offshore. 

The potential for S swell still remains a bit more uncertain. 

ECMWF is more bullish with a tight, compact low sitting east of Tasmania and gales in the Southern swell window, although they will be much better aligned for southern NSW, with areas north of Seal Rocks shadowed by the Hunter Curve. It’s possible we could see a  rise in S swell later Mon under this scenario favouring NENSW, persisting into Tues before easing. 

GFS is less optimistic with the surface low weaker and remaining tight to the Gippsland Coast before retrograding back into Eastern Bass Strait and then towards Tasmania with no effective swell generating S quadrant winds in the swell window.

We’ll see how this shakes out over the next 36-48hrs and report back Fri.

Seeya then!