South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wed 19th Mar)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun E'ly swell building Thurs, easing Fri/Sat, generally clean with light winds (exception SC THurs, MNC Fri)
• Small S'ly swell glancing Northern NSW later Thurs/Fri
• Small leftovers Sun
• Rebuilding fun E'ly swell Tues/Wed/Thurs, and a possible bigger swell next weekend
• S'ly swell on the cards for later next week too

Recap

Southerly swells managed 4-5ft sets across south facing beaches in Far Northern NSW on Tuesday morning, though conditions were somewhat wind affected. Surf size was smaller south from Coffs, and also across SE Qld where we saw anywhere between clean-ish 2ft (semi-exposed points) and bumpy 3-4ft (exposed northern end). Size has eased today and winds have gone around to the east though it’s remained generally light. 

This week (Mar 20 - 21)

A small easterly trade swell will build through Thursday, offering some fun waves (banks permitting) throughout SE Qld and Northern NSW, before easing very slightly through Friday.

This swell is the result of a slow moving high in the Tasman Sea and a trough of low pressure in the far northern Coral Sea, with an anchored, strengthening fetch between the two (see below) expected to whip up 2-3ft sets across most locations. The Sunshine Coast could see a touch more size, however locations south from about Yamba will pick up smaller surf as they’ll be positioned just out of the direct fetch alignment. 

Local winds look pretty good thanks to a weak synoptic flow at the coastal margin. In general we’ll see light onshores across most regions, though variable conditions are expected through the mornings which could offer outflow offshore winds. 

The only exception here is the Mid North Coast, which will see freshening NE thru’ N’ly winds from Thursday afternoon into Friday, courtesy of a ridge along the Southern NSW coast. 

The Sunshine Coast will also be located a little closer to the ridge across the lower Coral Sea/northern Tasman Sea, which could also result in a little more strength in the local easterly breeze (the upside is the slight increase in surf size, relative to southern regions).

Either way, it’ll be well worth scouting the open beaches for something worthwhile.

Also, as a side note for Northern NSW, we’ll also see a small south swell glance the coast later Thursday and Friday, generated by a strong but poorly aligned cold front below the continent earlier this week. 

In general we’re looking at very inconsistent, long-lined 2ft sets at south friendly beaches, however I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the region’s more reliable south swell magnets pick up 2-3ft waves. 

This south swell will be very useful across the Mid North Coast where the risk of freshening northerly winds may very well deteriorate surf conditions at open beaches, but offer good conditions at south swell magnets. So, keep that up your sleeve.

This weekend (Mar 22 - 23)

Most of our swell windows will be devoid of primary swell generation over the coming days, which means the weekend’s looking at slowly easing surf from Friday.

SE Qld and Far Northern NSW beaches may see some early 2-3ft sets from the east swell on Saturday but size will continue to ease to around 2ft through the day, and 1-2ft on Sunday. 

Friday’s south swell will be all but gone (across Northern NSW) by Saturday however there is a glimmer of hope for a minor pulse on Sunday. 

An intense but poorly aligned low pressure system passing south of Tasmania on Thursday will generate some minor long period sideband energy, perhaps offering super inconsistent 1-2ft sets at south swell magnets south of Byron. 

As for conditions, light variable winds and sea breezes are expected in most areas both days, though a weak trough off the Mid North Coast may slightly nudge up northerlies to its north (i.e. Yamba and surrounds) whilst bringing southerlies to the Lower Mid North Coast - albeit without much strength. 

To be fair, that’s not too far off the definition of ‘light and variable’ anyway. 

All in all, make the most of Saturday.

Next week (Mar 24 onwards)

Next week still looks initially slow on the local synoptics (so the first few days will maintain very small surf conditions), however we have a couple of areas of interest to keep an eye on.

First of all, a stationary high in the Tasman Sea will broaden a ridge across its northern flank, which will rebuild easterly swells across all coasts from very late Monday towards a broad peak through Tues/Wed, before easing Thursday. Size should reach somewhere in the 3ft range at exposed beaches.

Additionally, a surface trough developing at the tail of the ridge has more size potential (from the east), but for the following weekend. It's too early to have confidence in the resulting surf potential just yet though.

Elsewhere, and model guidance is suggesting we could see a sharp trough cross the Tasmanian divide mid–week, resulting in a strong Tasman Low somewhere east of Bass Strait by Thursday and a resulting punchy south swell for parts of the NSW coast late Thursday and/or Friday. 

Whether that favours Northern NSW is yet to be seen, but it’ll be well worth keeping an eye on.

See you Friday!