Some size from the S short term if you can work around winds, then back to a grovel for the rest of the week
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 2nd Sep)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Background E’ly swell supplies a few small, very inconsistent sets this week into the weekend
- Stronger S’ly swell Tues/Wed, favouring NENSW for size- fresh S’ly winds Tues, tend more SE then E-NE through Wed
- Small E’ly blend keeps surfable waves through the end of next week with NW-N winds
- Small S swells next week with winds returning to N-NE by mid week
- Possible better quality S swell late next week or weekend- low confidence, check back Wed
Recap
Not much over the weekend with small, just rideable swells (mix of S and NE windswells) offering up a grovel on the open beaches. Sat was in the 1-2ft range (more 1-1.5ft) with mod/fresh NW tending N’ly winds. Similar on Sun with the occ. set from the E offering a 2 footer for the patient. Not much different today with inconsistent 1-2ft surf from the S and E and mod NW winds expected to tend W’ly then W/SW late in the day as a front pushes into the Tasman.
A few fun wedges at North Coast backbeaches this morning
This week (Sep2-6)
After strong winds and unseasonal heat build ups we’ll see a more typical seasonal pattern for the short term with a high in the bight and a strong front pushing into the Tasman as a parent low slips under Tasmania. The front brings a bog standard blast of winter/spring style S swell through the short term, with the high quickly moving into the Tasman. Once that occurs we’ll see swells ramp down quickly with a return to small swells and a northerly pattern for the rest of week and into the weekend.
In the short run tomorrow should be sizey from the S and windy as the front and a high pressure ridge bring mod/fresh S/SW-S winds which will clock around S/SE in the a’noon at mod/fresh paces. A mix of S’ly swell trains in the water will see size to 4-6ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, all wind affected with smaller surf at more protected locations. Expect 2-3ft surf at SEQLD S facing beaches, with the occ. 4ft set just on the border. There should be enough swell for some fun waves at spots with some wind protection.
Wed looks windy again with SE winds shifting E then light NE ion the a’noon. Swell from the deeper fetch adjacent to Tasmania should be dominant for the early with size to 4-5ft at S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches.
S swells then ease rapidly into Thurs giving us some small surf through Thurs morning before easing right back through Fri. Light NW winds early tend N’ly both days in the ‘noon so you’ll need to hit up open beaches early before seeking some protection from N’ly winds. Absent much in the way of S swell we’ll be looking at tiny surf in the 1 to occ. 2ft range out of the E.
This weekend (Sep7-8)
No major swells expected for the weekend. A zonal front and compact low races across the Tasman over the weekend and doesn’t look like a swell producer for the f/cast region.
A weak trough on the Central Coast will see N’ly winds freshen through Sat.
Winds look to tend light NW Sun morning before clocking around N-NE in the a’noon.
Unless we some some drastic change in the charts through the week we’re looking at more minor surf under 2ft, mostly inconsistent background E’ly energy from the South Pacific.
We’ll update through the week but at this stage there’s not much worth working around, just a small grovel on offer for the morning.
Next week (Sep9 onwards)
Nothing really noteworthy on the charts for the first half of next week. A zonal pattern of frontal activity maintains a W’ly flow through our near Southern swell window (nothing as radical as this past week!) with high pressure moving NE into sub-tropical latitudes.
A small bog standard front looks to push into the Tasman o/night Sun into Mon (see below).
That would indicate small S swells possible on Tues under S-SE winds as a trough looks to move through the f/cast region during this time. Models are divergent but we’ll peg it for 2-3ft at this stage.
Winds look to shift back N-NE by mid week.
Following that there is some indication of a deeper fetch in the lower Tasman that may send some quality S groundswell our way late next week. Too early to have any confidence on size of timing but we’ll flag it now and see how it looks on Wed.
Seeya then.
Comments
Trying to think of an apt description of the water this morning. Kind of an unappealing shade of Wynnum or Cleveland in Moreton Bay.
very turbid green eh.
Upwelling?
I thought they'd be nice waves this morning and tomorrow but the beach I went to was totally unsurfable due to the sand, which is notable because usually the banks are pretty good.
I thought with this run of no swell the damage from the big swell would be fixed, but not at all where I've checked out/surfed so far. Back to boring fitness I guess.
Incredible difference between this time last year and now.
This time last year there was an abundance of sand (50m wide beach at the Point) and lots of light wind, fun sized days.
This year, everywhere (mostly) is deep and wave quality is way, way down.
Can concur with quality. Big beach here but banks are really suss. Dependent on too many variables that aren't going to come together in spring.
Seemed to be 4ft+ sets here this morning, but as mentioned above, the sand situation is desperate.
Sand is pretty well fcked everywhere. There’s a multitude of straight banks from the shoreline each separated by big deep gutters all parallel to the shoreline.
Ah seems you are describing the Super Gutter as opposed to the Superbank.
The worst i've seen the sand around her in quite a long time. Time to drop a coupla artificial reefs along the northern nsw coastline i reckon.
What needs to happen to fix them gutters? I thought the northerlies were a neccesary evil to fill the sand in? Am I right? - we need the spring situation to happen to promote the rewards ? Thoughts ?
Not always. Some years the northerlies just punch holes in the point banks, other years yeah they chock them full.
Beachies, depends on yours. Mine can turn around in a couple of weeks. I like anything small from somewhat of an east quadrant to start pushing sand closer to the beach.
Sometimes these shit south swells and their accompanying sweep, slide slugs of sand into good spots too.
Still, a fair mystery most of the time.
Thanks @Solitude , yeah I was aware re-point breaks and northerly situation.
Was thinking more on the lines of beachies, some of them seem to rely on that spring time weather flow.
Love me a good beachie :)
Some of the really open beachies in your neck of the woods can take months if not a year to fill in those 50m gutters.
Sand transportation fascinates me. I stare at the ocean nearly every day and still can’t work it out.
I think in general you’re probably right though Hastoes, periods of smaller swell such as spring are more likely to slowly let holes fill in and banks improve (In this forecast zone at least).
Crazy on how variable the sand movement is.
One day she's on...... next day plop, even hourly depending on so many factors including tides, winds and swell direction.
Managed to stumble on a not so frequented inshore high tide bank with 2 other people two weeks ago. Revisited it last
week on same tide/swell and wind direction,,,,, it was kahh kahh
We do some sediment transport modelling for work and it is very tricky to get correct. Typically there is a constant movement of sand from longshore drift but then you have to factor in swell intensity/period/duration/direction, have there been flows coming from the rivers delivering new sediment, have there been large swells mobilising sand from the beaches and bringing it into the near shore zone, have there been too many big swells creating gutters etc.
One of the reasons (i think) we typically get such great beachies up NNSW is the fact we have a fair few large rivers to our south, and longshore drift delivers much of that sediment to Fraser Island, dropping it on our beaches on the way there.
Geology also a factor, shaping the orientation and length of beaches. The long zeta curve beaches with long distances between headlands down this way end up with an extensive inshore gutters and few banks.
On otherwise random stretches of coast with no real structure (rocks, walls, reef etc) the formation of a good surfing sand bank really is a bit of a miracle.
For granules of quartz to aggregate and form an appropriately shaped ridge, at an adequate water depth to cause a lump of wave energy to peel along is intricate to say the least.
Considering the factors at play, no wonder we have a hard time predicting where this gold dust will land.
It’s pretty fun trying and the results satisfying. Beachie enthusiasts will be able to relate.
I feel that if you put a good quality punchy/peaky ESE swell into the coast then the sand wouldn't seem as much as a problem (apart from having to sit 60m out to sea on the outer bank). I'm thinking that this current S swell around here is just a poor low quality swell (bad combination of direction, size, period and other mysto energy numbers), that amplifies the seemingly poor sand situation.
Sand looks like it’s on the improve to me.
A long way to go but heaps better than it was a week ago.
N flat spells don't do much to fill gutters in here. Winter S flat spells and Summer storms do wonders. Rubbish gutters still. Staring through horizontal blinds having flashbacks to that 3 month flat spell.