South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 28th August)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Better pulse of south swell late Thurs (MNC) and Fri (FNNSW), tiny in SE Qld
• Mostly NW-N winds apart from MNC with a more variable flow
• More small southerly pulses for the foreseeable future next one Sun, i.e. extended run of small surf in SE Qld
• Background E’ly swell supplies a few small, very inconsistent sets from Thurs, persisting into next week
• Stronger S’ly swell likely Tues/Wed, favouring NENSW for size

Recap

Small surf yesterday in the 1ft range with the occ. 1.5-2ft set, clean before freshening N’lies. Today is seeing a small blend of S and E swells too 1-2ft max with cleanest conditions on the MNC, and elsewhere already wind affected by freshening NW tending N’ly winds.

MNC getting the best out of this small S swell with light winds

This week (Aug28-30)

No change to the pattern with very strong, zonal frontal activity below the continent driving strong to gale force W’lies across the immediate Southern Ocean into Bass Strait and the Tasman. Weak, mobile high pressure is being pushed quickly into sub-tropical latitudes leading to N’ly episodes north of Coffs Harbour with with a more NW-W flow across temperate NSW. The gale force fetches out of Bass Strait are supplying small S’ly pulses favouring Central/Mid North NSW. A slow moving low in the South Pacific will supply some very inconsistent background E swell into the weekend and next week.

In the short run we’ll see the current severe gales out of Bass Strait (60kt gusts recorded at Hogan Island!) generate a stronger S swell showing late tomorrow on the MNC, Fri elsewhere, with size to 3ft across S facing beaches and a few bigger 4ft sets possible at select S swell magnets in NENSW. Not much will show across SEQLD from this source where we’ll be relying on a small, distant E swell signal offering up the occ. 2ft set.

Tricky winds tomorrow as another weak, troughy change propagates up the North Coast, bringing SW-S winds across the MNC before washing out to SE-NE breezes in the a’noon. Early winds from Tweed-Ballina will tend more NW before shifting W-SW then SE, then SE-NE.

North of the border should remain mod/fresh N/NW-N.

Fri morning looks the best of it across the North Coast at S swell magnets with a light/variable offshore flow before winds freshen again from the N.

This weekend (Aug 31-Sep1)

Gales out of Bass Strait Sat will see mod W-NW winds Sat. We may see a late kick in new S swell right on the lower edge of the MNC (Sun is more likely) and models are showing small E swell from the South Pacific low which should offer up an occ. 2ft set. 

Tricky winds again with a weak trough hovering about the MNC bringing light SW-SE winds, whilst north of the trough we’ll NW-N winds. There will be some swirling , variable winds about the trough line so stay tuned to local wind obs.

Sun will see another pulse in small refracted S swell to 2 occ. 3ft at S facing beaches favouring the MNC. Nice and clean early with W to W/NW winds. North of Byron-Ballina will see more NW-N winds, stronger N’ly in SEQLD and we’ll be relying on inconsistent background E swells for the most part. Nothing amazing this weekend with a better outlook for the MNC and a wave for the keen elsewhere.

Next week (Sep2 onwards)

Looks like a less zonal, better aligned fetch moving into the Tasman early next week. Still with W’ly biased winds but they will have a S’ly component. Under current modelling we’d see fresh N’ly tending W’ly winds Mon, with winds shifting W/SW-SW as a front and low pass into the Tasman. We’ll finesse the timing and size Fri but at this stage we’re looking at small surf Mon, mostly easing S swell with background E swells to 2 occ. 3ft possible.  Tues looks the biggest day of the f/cast period with a much more solid S swell on offer, likely  building into the 4-6ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW early offshore SW breezes tending to fresh S-S/SE winds. Expect smaller 2-3ft surf form this source in SEQLD and we’ll see easing swells through Wed from this source.

That swell looks to tail off quickly through and we’re back to small, pulsey E’ly swells for the rest of the week with N’ly winds quickly returning by Wed a’noon and extending into Fri.

There is some suggestion of a pattern change by next weekend with a more favourably positioned long wave trough steer gin a stronger front into the Tasman and a supporting high moving at a more S’ly latitude. That’s too far off too have any confidence in but we’ll flag it for now and see how it looks on Fri.

Seeya then!