South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon August 19th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S/SE swells easing Tues with NW-N winds
• Fresh pulse of S/SE’ly groundswell Wed with mod/fresh NW-N winds
• Easing S swells Thurs/Fri with N’ly quarter winds
• Becoming small into next weekend
• Small E swells becoming established next week with N’ly episodes

Recap

Small waves over the weekend with a few 2footers Sat under a freshening NW flow that tended N/NW-N before finally ending up fresh W’ly. Sunday was tiny with mostly 1ft or less surf under offshore winds. There was a late kick in S swell across the MNC to 2ft. Today is seeing mostly S swell to 2-3ft across NENSW with an outlier in the form of a S swell magnet on the border seeing 3-4ft surf under offshore winds now tending S-SE.

S swell magnet on the border took the bikkies for size and quality

This week (Aug 19-23)

The weekends front and trough has cleared the coast, with the last vestiges of the trough tipping NENSW. That front brought a spike in S swell. A deeper fetch now operating near New Zealand longitudes is better aimed at Pacific targets (some to Fiji, most to Tahiti) with some sideband S/SE groundswell due through the middle of this week. High pressure systems are looking weak and mobile as befits the changing seasons, tracking NE into the Tasman and bringing a N’ly flow across sub-tropical to temperate regions before a mid week trough sees winds shift W before another brief S’ly change. Winds quickly shift back to the N leading into the weekend.

In the short run we will see that N’ly flow develop through tomorrow with early light  winds clocking around E’ly then NE’ly and freshening during the day. The current S’ly swell will have some small leftovers for the morning session, in the 3ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 1-2ft at SEQLD S facing beaches. 

We’ll see a strong new pulse of S-S/SE mid period groundswell fill in o/night Tues  with sets to 4-5ft at S exposed breaks for Wed morning, smaller 3ft at S facing beaches in SEQLD. Winds will be the problem with a freshening N’ly flow, likely to be NW-N/NW early. That will reduce surfable options to a handful of breaks that can handle N’ly winds and a strong S swell.

 Definitely worth pencilling in though because we’ll see mostly small surf for the medium term.

A troughy areas sits just south of Sydney on Thurs, under current modelling with a mostly NW’ly to N’ly flow expected for through the day. 

Get in early for S/SE swell leftovers to 3-4ft on the sets, easing during the day. Smaller 2ft in SEQLD and easing. We may see some NE windswell across the MNC during Thurs.

Not much on offer to end the working week. Reinforcing energy is weak and inconsistent so we’ll be looking at the odd 2ft set at S facing beaches. The trough moves north and brings a shallow S’ly change during Fri without much strength to it.

This weekend (Aug 24-25)

Not a great deal of action on the radar for this weekend. A broad but weak and zonal front transits the Tasman from Fri. At the moment wave models are not interested in much swell from this system and and we’re likely to see small surf Sat, with S-SE winds and a mostly S/SE swell to 1-2ft.

Sun may see some minor S swell in the a’noon from the frontal passage in the Tasman. EC is slightly more bullish than GFS so a few 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches are a reasonable possibility if we get that upside outcome. Winds should shift N’ly again as high pressure moves NE into the Tasman. Saturdays SE winds move east across the Tasman and we should see a small leftover signal of SE swell to 1-2ft in the mix. 

Next week (Aug 26 onwards)

No major swell sources on the radar to start next week. We’re likely to see another front/trough combo bring freshening pre-frontal N’ly winds Mon next week with tiny surf expected. 

A zonal flow below the Tasmania suggests tiny surf from the S.
There is a small low potentially forming near the South Island early next week which generate some workable S/SE swell into mid next week.

A long angled trough in the South Pacific is a distant swell source for the medium term but with no real size to it.  The broad trade flow pushing into the trough as it sets up should see a small E swell persist through most of next week. 

We’ll see how these flukey swell sources shape up through the week, as well as a complex low gyre moving under the continent next week. 

That has potential for S swells as it enters the southern swell window late next week.

Check back Wed for the latest. 

Seeya then.