South-east Queensland and Northern NSW by Steve Shearer (issued Mon July 15th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing E’ly swells next week overlapped by S swells from Mon
• Last pulse of E swell likely later Mon into Tues
• S swell spike Thurs, favouring NENSW with fresh SW winds
• Easing S swells Fri 
• More S swells this weekend, favouring NENSW and mostly tiny in SEQLD
• Tiny/flat surf likely from next week with fresh W’ly winds

Recap

Solid, pumping surf over the weekend as the trough block E’ly swell came in hot and was joined by return flow S swell Sun as a low which formed in the trough line close to the coast moved southwards towards Tasmania. How big? Easy 5-6ft+ on Sat with some bigger sets reported under mostly mod/fresh W winds. There were some patches of devil wind (NW-N/NW) on the Gold Coast Sat morning which hampered wave quality. Size held into Sun morning, with just a slight easing through the day (still bombing sets!) under a more favourable W/SW flow. True offshore W’ly winds today with a cold outbreak reaching right up into sub-tropical/tropical latitudes. Still firing this morning with a blend of E/NE and S swells to 3-5ft in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft+ in SEQLD and the S component expected to ease out during the a’noon.

Sunny Coast beachies on the pump Sat a'noon

Solid sets across NENSW Sat with some great surf if you could get out to it

This week (July 15-19)

As mentioned above we have a deep low (985hPa) adjacent to Tasmania and another attached low centre further E in the Tasman with the long E/NE infeed into this complex low gyre focussed near the west coast of the North Island and slowly sliding out of the swell window. As we discussed last week the return S’ly flow from the low actually pushes onto the western side of Tasmania, effectively out of our swell window. We will see the low eventually move NE and back into our swell window by mid week with a spike in S swell expected during this period with a brief interruption of a mostly W’ly flow to a more SW one. We’ll then see more bog standard fronts with smaller S swell pulses into and over the weekend. Read on for details. 

Straight offshore winds tomorrow with a smaller signal of E’ly swell and fading S swell. We should still get a slight bump in size through the a’noon from a last flare up in the fetch near the North Island building back to 2-3ft+ on the sets. Generally slower 3ft in the morning in NENSW, 2ft in SEQLD but everywhere should be well groomed by the offshore so well worth a look.

Easing swells Wed with some leftover E and small S swell around 2-3ft in NENSW, less than 2ft in SEQLD but straight offshore W’ly winds will have groomed everything. Those winds will be fresh and gusty as the low moves northwards up the NSW Coast so it might make for difficult surfing conditions.

Thurs looks vigorous, at least for NENSW,  with the low moving NE and a slingshot fetch of S’ly quarter winds (see below) pushing up the southern/central NSW Coast. Early winds from the W-W/SW will quickly tend SW and ramp right up from Coffs to Byron, weaker north of the border. We’ll see short range S swells build from 3-5ft to 5-6ft across NENSW S exposed breaks with bigger surf at S facing river bars. Smaller surf in SEQLD, likely reaching 3 occ. 4ft at reliable S swell magnets north of the border.

Easing S swells Fri as the fetch rapidly moves up and away. Expect 3-4ft of size in the morning in NENSW, becoming tiny in SEQLD, under light offshore winds.  There’ll be another frontal passage Fri but at this stage it looks unlikely we will see any new S swell until Sat. 

This weekend (July 20-21)

Another frontal passage is due late Sat. So winds will remain offshore W’ly, possibly with some patches of pre-frontal NW or W/NW wind. We’ll see a small S swell pulse from Fridays front, up into the 3 occ. 4ft range at NENSW S facing beaches, just pushing a few 2ft waves into the more reliable SEQLD S swell magnets.

Fresh S swell for Sun, likely building through the a’noon into the 3-5ft range in NENSW with a smaller morning in the 3ft range. Again, not much energy is expected to show in SEQLD with a few 2ft sets in the morning, possibly reaching 3ft late in the a’noon at the most reliable S swell magnets. Light offshore winds will tend SW then trend to light S-SE breezes.

Next week (July 22 onwards)

Quite an unusual pattern next week with large low pressure gyres developing E of New Zealand and to the south of the continent. That puts the Tasman Sea in the “dead zone” in between these large storm systems. As a result we’re likely looking at a period of offshore winds and tiny/flat surf developing next week. 

We should see some fun S swell leftovers for Mon in NENSW in the 3ft range with offshore winds. Mostly tiny in SEQLD.

By Tues it looks like we’ll be down to knee to ankle high surf with the flat spell likely to persist into the end of the week. 

We’ll keep our eye out for traces of long period S swell but absent that looks like a period of no surf ahead next week.

Likely this flat spell will be broken from the S into the weekend 27-28/7 as the next frontal passage pushes into the Tasman. That’s too far off to have any confidence in specifics so check back in Wed and we’ll see how the long range is looking. Still plenty to keep us occupied in the short term.

Check ya Wednesday.